Bundesliga · resolved market
FC Augsburg vs. VfB Stuttgart: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbadf935a79f8daa243d012aa5b0da3db549c81a149365b909f332093a3bc402d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,147
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,147 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 41c | 3,479$1,423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,422.72 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3c…2f57backed Yes | 64c | 2,648$1,694 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$953.12 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.29per pick | 57cpaid | +53%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 58c | 2,044$1,191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$852.92 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 36c | 1,432$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515.52 | 341 | 44.6%152 W · 189 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd573…f99ebacked Yes | 64c | 618.83$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.78 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed No | 36c | 568.83$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.78 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 58c | 517.24$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.24 | 241 | 32%77 W · 164 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1002…1ef5backed Yes | 60c | 510.4$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.34 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab8b…87acbacked No | 33c | 450$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.5 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 36c | 449.12$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.96 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed No | 35c | 388.11$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.68 | 147 | 34.7%51 W · 96 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked No | 36c | 322.65$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.98 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d39…a4fbbacked Yes | 65c | 232.36$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.36 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +5.1wins | +0.18per pick | 46cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3548…14dabacked Yes | 59c | 197.21$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.85 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc629…5e51backed Yes | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 79 | 58.2%46 W · 33 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 37c | 185.34$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.48 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed No | 35c | 152.25$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.74 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2412…b5a1backed Yes | 64c | 141.69$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.01 | 67 | 68.7%46 W · 21 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Yes | 63c | 119.12$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.08 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9db…dd44backed Yes | 69c | 117$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.52 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c86…15c0backed No | 32c | 106.25$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 176 | 52.3%92 W · 84 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Yes | 61c | 105$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.95 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc770…8dbbbacked Yes | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 108 | 64.8%70 W · 38 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Yes | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 207 | 53.6%111 W · 96 L | +22.3wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 36c | 98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.28 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Yes | 56c | 80$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.2 | 346 | 55.5%192 W · 154 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed No | 36c | 79.19$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.51 | 358 | 56.4%202 W · 156 L | +19.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8034…2463backed Yes | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 35 | 74.3%26 W · 9 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 63cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdf3d…fd74backed No | 35c | 74.7$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.18 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -4.3wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…a86bbacked Yes | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 83 | 66.3%55 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Yes | 64c | 62.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 70 | 67.1%47 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 37c | 61.05$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.59 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd11…79a5backed Yes | 68c | 50.71$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.23 | 21 | 85.7%18 W · 3 L | +6.7wins | +0.32per pick | 54cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x157a…e4a3backed Yes | 63c | 47.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 79 | 58.2%46 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Yes | 63c | 45.52$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.84 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6882…6f08backed Yes | 72c | 39.85$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 36c | 37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e71…e8d0backed Yes | 65c | 36.65$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.83 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce72…cbefbacked Yes | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +71.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb897…fc48backed Yes | 59c | 33.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.78 | 117 | 41.9%49 W · 68 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed No | 44c | 32.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 306 | 47.1%144 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f31…e2b6backed Yes | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 80 | 67.5%54 W · 26 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb358…2723backed No | 49c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf788…6f86backed Yes | 55c | 21.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.69 | 90 | 68.9%62 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee45…e055backed Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79b3…d6efbacked Yes | 65c | 18.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 61c | 17.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.61 | 395 | 58.7%232 W · 163 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb64c…393dbacked Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1036…fb48backed Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Augsburg vs. VfB Stuttgart: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- FC Augsburg vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Augsburg vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Augsburg vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 3.5Over won
- FC Augsburg vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: FC Augsburg (-1.5)VfB Stuttgart won
- Spread: VfB Stuttgart (-1.5)VfB Stuttgart won
- Spread: VfB Stuttgart (-2.5)VfB Stuttgart won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.