TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

FC Augsburg vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 3.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$706,611

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $706,611 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 137 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3333…15bdbacked Over40c209,408$84,327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125,081.321376.9%10 W · 3 L+3.0wins+0.23per pick54cpaid+39.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Under60c122,605$73,563 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73,562.935945.8%27 W · 32 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under60c31,039$18,533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,533.2734144.6%152 W · 189 L-8.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb52b…b156backed Under54c10,008$5,453 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,453.451154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick55cpaid+2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over47c8,606$4,017 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,588.642,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea00…c1f1backed Under59c7,000$4,130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,1302759.3%16 W · 11 L+2.3wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+14.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Under59c5,932$3,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,499.8838748.3%187 W · 200 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a40…c93fbacked Under59c5,000$2,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,9507057.1%40 W · 30 L+4.0wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9870…b9d3backed Under62c4,844$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0002857.1%16 W · 12 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f29…f03dbacked Over39c3,826$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,326.089856.1%55 W · 43 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+11.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x47c7…cac7backed Under59c3,576$2,110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,109.842853.6%15 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under60c3,322$1,993 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,993.1916652.4%87 W · 79 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Under59c3,000$1,770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,77024258.7%142 W · 100 L+11.2wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4a39…a189backed Under59c3,000$1,770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,770633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-25.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x40d0…4415backed Under59c2,550$1,505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,504.55349.1%26 W · 27 L-4.0wins-0.08per pick57cpaid-12.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5773…ac11backed Under59c2,519$1,486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,486.2331145%140 W · 171 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under59c2,112$1,246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,246.3169851.9%362 W · 336 L+22.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under60c2,065$1,248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,247.943,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd0e7…b14fbacked Over40c1,720$688 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,031.847345.2%33 W · 40 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick48cpaid+1.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f04…6a54backed Over39c1,325$521 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$803.27475%3 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.33per pick42cpaid+100.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked Under10c1,132$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.397532%24 W · 51 L-0.3wins0.00per pick32cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefce…4e4abacked Under60c1,083$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6502157.1%12 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+14.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc39…1564backed Under59c1,000$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5902065%13 W · 7 L+3.1wins+0.15per pick50cpaid+28.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4a59…eb2ebacked Under59c1,000$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5908764.4%56 W · 31 L+10.2wins+0.12per pick53cpaid+22.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over35c999.98$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$649.9911142.3%47 W · 64 L+6.3wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+20.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x430a…a940backed Under48c989.58$475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$475540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-17%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa83b…0e4abacked Under53c981.13$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$520366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa0dc…586cbacked Under55c963.64$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5302832.1%9 W · 19 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-17.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdb12…f057backed Under59c940$555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$554.615453.9%83 W · 71 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda5f…2e9bbacked Under63c794.7$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500520%1 W · 4 L-1.9wins-0.39per pick59cpaid-63.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa163…db4cbacked Over40c775.38$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$465.223100%3 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+137.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7879…3653backed Over41c750$308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$442.51957.9%11 W · 8 L+1.9wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+29.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2714…960fbacked Under60c699.99$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.995455.6%30 W · 24 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f7e…c230backed Over41c609.76$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$359.765158.8%30 W · 21 L+6.5wins+0.13per pick46cpaid+31.2%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0xef18…4d70backed Over42c585.98$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$337.116464%105 W · 59 L+28.5wins+0.17per pick47cpaid+49.2%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Under60c550$327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$327.3835856.4%202 W · 156 L+19.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+10.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xebba…383cbacked Under60c500.9$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.541752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+14.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Under60c500.9$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.541855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+27.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5179…2b29backed Under59c500$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29522854.8%125 W · 103 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Under59c500$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29515454.5%84 W · 70 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cc9…f0b3backed Over40c500$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3005944.1%26 W · 33 L+5.9wins+0.10per pick34cpaid+22%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x64ae…ead9backed Over40c500$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3006339.7%25 W · 38 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c14…68f3backed Under4c499.98$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20230%0 W · 23 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1399…48c8backed Over46c497.62$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$268.1212460.5%75 W · 49 L+19.9wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+46.3%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xd60c…2b06backed Over42c469.98$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.9216056.9%91 W · 69 L+13.3wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+22.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Under59c400$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2368461.9%52 W · 32 L+8.6wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+19.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd079…8db3backed Under59c350$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.58864.8%57 W · 31 L+11.0wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+23.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4d58…2073backed Under59c350$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.514355.9%80 W · 63 L+9.7wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+12.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd2dc…b3c5backed Under59c320$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.812356.9%70 W · 53 L+8.1wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+10.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Over40c316$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.610361.2%63 W · 40 L+8.2wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+12.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x41ed…1da9backed Under59c300$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17712162.8%76 W · 45 L+15.0wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+24.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x6203…5544backed Under59c300$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1772657.7%15 W · 11 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+18.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd810…2eb8backed Under59c300$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1772850%14 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfcb5…9bf1backed Under61c299.99$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.9933340.8%136 W · 197 L-14.3wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-14.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2025…db59backed Under59c280$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.212757.5%73 W · 54 L+11.0wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+18.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdcf7…bcbebacked Under59c280$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.212657.9%73 W · 53 L+9.9wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+12.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4109…7e24backed Under59c250$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.58261%50 W · 32 L+8.5wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+22.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb3e4…d6b2backed Under59c250$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.513256.1%74 W · 58 L+6.5wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+11.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2692…2698backed Under59c250$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.511563.5%73 W · 42 L+13.5wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+25.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xc383…a540backed Under59c240$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.612858.6%75 W · 53 L+11.9wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+19%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4e0a…e4e6backed Under59c240$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.625659.4%152 W · 104 L+9.8wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc58a…b8f8backed Under62c237.31$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.132751.9%14 W · 13 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick60cpaid-11.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc16f…0f4fbacked Under59c219$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.2110855.6%60 W · 48 L+6.4wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+11.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x85d8…3cbebacked Under48c216.42$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.8810554.3%57 W · 48 L+7.2wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+16.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Under60c213$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.830054%162 W · 138 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa494…4a1fbacked Under59c210$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.94650%23 W · 23 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84fc…9db4backed Under59c200$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11812259%72 W · 50 L+11.6wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+18%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7398…f4b6backed Under59c200$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11811458.8%67 W · 47 L+10.9wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+18.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa60b…c728backed Under59c200$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11813957.6%80 W · 59 L+10.9wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+16.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x3f1f…f56bbacked Under59c200$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1186556.9%37 W · 28 L+4.8wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+16.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf79e…9a84backed Under59c200$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11813859.4%82 W · 56 L+12.8wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+18.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x864c…735fbacked Under59c200$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11811259.8%67 W · 45 L+11.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+20.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0fad…aa0fbacked Under59c200$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11812458.9%73 W · 51 L+12.0wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+17.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa48d…b023backed Under59c200$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1186460.9%39 W · 25 L+6.3wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+22.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa800…cc71backed Under59c200$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11810360.2%62 W · 41 L+9.7wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+19.6%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xd1b6…0bd5backed Under59c200$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1181030%3 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.20per pick50cpaid-33.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x90f9…e894backed Under59c200$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1188154.3%44 W · 37 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa620…ca56backed Under59c200$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11812358.5%72 W · 51 L+11.1wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+17.2%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xe601…c728backed Under59c200$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11811661.2%71 W · 45 L+11.1wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+19%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0ee5…96c2backed Under59c200$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1186959.4%41 W · 28 L+6.9wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+21.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa11d…72a8backed Under55c200$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-37%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8632…4696backed Under60c172.69$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.618252.4%43 W · 39 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8dec…60c2backed Over40c171.48$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.894156.1%23 W · 18 L+3.3wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+18.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4502…9eedbacked Under13c156.15$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-59.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Over38c152.56$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.5912832%41 W · 87 L-9.8wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-25.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x65b5…a9f7backed Under59c150$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.56755.2%37 W · 30 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5af1…f988backed Under59c150$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.56656.1%37 W · 29 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x16ea…9400backed Under60c146.3$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.7812056.7%68 W · 52 L+7.0wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+15.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8a3b…5fa5backed Under56c130.34$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.99540%2 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.21per pick61cpaid-28%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x67e6…86edbacked Under59c125.81$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.7712157.9%70 W · 51 L+8.9wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+17.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe013…1ddcbacked Under59c125$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.751369.2%9 W · 4 L+2.5wins+0.19per pick50cpaid+55.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4c4c…dc70backed Under59c122$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.981442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6afd…5cb1backed Under59c120$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.811759.8%70 W · 47 L+10.2wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+18.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd2a2…004abacked Under59c120$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.813254.5%72 W · 60 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4a87…fb21backed Under56c116.07$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$653441.2%14 W · 20 L-2.4wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-22.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Over49c110.29$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.011,30540.8%532 W · 773 L-42.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-21.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xea2e…d695backed Under59c110$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.911063.6%70 W · 40 L+13.6wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+26.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xa97e…7753backed Under59c100$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$599659.4%57 W · 39 L+7.9wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+14.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe9ea…810abacked Under59c100$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$596657.6%38 W · 28 L+3.9wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+14.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaaad…c739backed Under61c100$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$612259.1%13 W · 9 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+12.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.