Bundesliga · resolved market
FC Augsburg vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8b4554f6da877eac549f76fa17bacdd738d159085d563ec75d3d496a3eba9be4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,856
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,856 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 51c | 6,717$3,432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,432.02 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f09…9312backed Over | 54c | 4,588$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,088.32 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05e3…4b87backed Over | 54c | 3,486$1,882 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,603.56 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x598b…f296backed Under | 70c | 1,658$1,161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,160.76 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Over | 23c | 1,248$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$959.21 | 75 | 32%24 W · 51 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x430a…a940backed Under | 43c | 1,170$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0dc…586cbacked Under | 43c | 893.02$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc9…f0b3backed Over | 58c | 858.12$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.12 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +22%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Under | 72c | 763.89$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 380 | 55.8%212 W · 168 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 29c | 689.66$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.66 | 126 | 35.7%45 W · 81 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over | 58c | 499.98$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.99 | 111 | 42.3%47 W · 64 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 47c | 467.53$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.28 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…c208backed Over | 66c | 451.76$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.66 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2605…2b17backed Under | 80c | 437.5$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 75cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7e…cd92backed Under | 79c | 350$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 59c | 338.98$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.98 | 142 | 60.6%86 W · 56 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x797e…fc29backed Over | 59c | 338.98$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.98 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 47c | 303.65$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.69 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea1…f17ebacked Under | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 3cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23ec…759fbacked Under | 5c | 290$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 4cpaid | +566.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 45c | 249.42$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.31 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d54…6c91backed Under | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…b90dbacked Over | 59c | 185.41$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.02 | 61 | 34.4%21 W · 40 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4a…e7cabacked Under | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…a86bbacked Over | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 83 | 66.3%55 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 52c | 151.75$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.5 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 59c | 150.58$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.74 | 190 | 55.3%105 W · 85 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c9…748cbacked Under | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 49c | 130.7$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.86 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Under | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 112 | 52.7%59 W · 53 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Under | 50c | 78$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 55c | 77.77$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 346 | 55.5%192 W · 154 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16d3…7c23backed Over | 22c | 72.48$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb4…8830backed Over | 27c | 70$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.1 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +3.7wins | +0.22per pick | 37cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8dec…60c2backed Over | 32c | 69.04$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.95 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5404…5e58backed Over | 58c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a25…bb6bbacked Under | 69c | 54.19$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.44 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8193…8c82backed Over | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9381…9ae2backed Under | 73c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 72cpaid | -51%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x261c…d49dbacked Under | 78c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 73cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7718…4c1bbacked Over | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Under | 57c | 49.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 337 | 37.4%126 W · 211 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Under | 41c | 30.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 147 | 34.7%51 W · 96 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed Under | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4861…4fcabacked Over | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Augsburg vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 4.5this page
- FC Augsburg vs. VfB Stuttgart: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Augsburg vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Augsburg vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Augsburg vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: FC Augsburg (-1.5)VfB Stuttgart won
- Spread: VfB Stuttgart (-1.5)VfB Stuttgart won
- Spread: VfB Stuttgart (-2.5)VfB Stuttgart won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.