Bundesliga · resolved market
FC Augsburg vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8c93e7b07588b9cde8fa09ba73d5c3a078df34b10e908f41dbc2214d55075294
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,706
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,706 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb6d0…9b55backed Over | 62c | 9,968$6,229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,739.06 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 38c | 5,000$1,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,900 | 166 | 52.4%87 W · 79 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 37c | 4,235$1,567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,567.08 | 341 | 44.6%152 W · 189 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfa…324ebacked Under | 38c | 2,541$966 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$965.62 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -4.2wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x20c1…df04backed Over | 62c | 2,403$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$902.55 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +4.9wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 38c | 2,082$790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$790.44 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 37c | 1,941$725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$724.52 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x430a…a940backed Under | 24c | 1,045$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 76c | 901.89$681 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.86 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1462…ef6bbacked Over | 62c | 806.45$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 63c | 551.93$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.93 | 108 | 63%68 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 62c | 500$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190 | 187 | 59.4%111 W · 76 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 38c | 500$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 496 | 47.4%235 W · 261 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61bb…5854backed Over | 57c | 481.09$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.87 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d5c…1768backed Over | 61c | 435.56$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.87 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -7.2wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -47%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Under | 31c | 369.9$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.61 | 147 | 34.7%51 W · 96 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 37c | 324$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.12 | 358 | 56.4%202 W · 156 L | +19.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 38c | 312.58$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.26 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 38c | 285.45$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.47 | 481 | 46.4%223 W · 258 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 38c | 276$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.88 | 300 | 54%162 W · 138 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Over | 62c | 260$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.8 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a80…49bfbacked Over | 62c | 241.94$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.94 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Under | 39c | 180$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.2 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Under | 37c | 173.49$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.19 | 75 | 32%24 W · 51 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf4…40fabacked Over | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 53 | 64.2%34 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc253…5800backed Over | 63c | 159.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.86 | 42 | 69%29 W · 13 L | +5.2wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +25%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Over | 68c | 158.71$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.89 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d30…077dbacked Over | 63c | 125.77$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.77 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc884…a4e6backed Over | 63c | 120.63$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.98 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c86…15c0backed Under | 27c | 111.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 176 | 52.3%92 W · 84 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0189…cab8backed Over | 63c | 98.41$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.41 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 67c | 87.68$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.97 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf3d…fd74backed Over | 62c | 81.67$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.03 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -4.3wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xff89…9c06backed Over | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 37c | 75.29$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.14 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b4…8d0bbacked Under | 34c | 68.69$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.44 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd454…b47fbacked Under | 39c | 65.09$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.39 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…572dbacked Over | 62c | 64.52$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.52 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x85a1…a640backed Over | 62c | 57.29$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.77 | 89 | 59.6%53 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90df…a209backed Under | 39c | 53.2$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6cec…a0abbacked Under | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac24…576ebacked Over | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Under | 39c | 49.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b9c…b478backed Over | 62c | 48.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 63cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed Under | 38c | 48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.19 | 210 | 51.4%108 W · 102 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03f5…3047backed Over | 63c | 47.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 88 | 63.6%56 W · 32 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 38c | 47.17$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 220 | 47.3%104 W · 116 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 41c | 45.32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 62c | 41.77$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.03 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7c…a489backed Over | 58c | 41.62$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.48 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1f…4eebbacked Over | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 86 | 60.5%52 W · 34 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e41…36f2backed Over | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 52 | 67.3%35 W · 17 L | +5.7wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +24%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Over | 62c | 37.49$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.24 | 258 | 50.4%130 W · 128 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fb…e34ebacked Over | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcd…1a94backed Over | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a98…3f93backed Over | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb63a…7637backed Over | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 63 | 69.8%44 W · 19 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Under | 37c | 27.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 98 | 38.8%38 W · 60 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 38c | 26.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c5…20d0backed Under | 38c | 26.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Over | 63c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 53 | 64.2%34 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a25…bb6bbacked Under | 41c | 24.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x167b…6075backed Over | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbf…f4e6backed Over | 77c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aea…eff2backed Over | 62c | 20.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf096…c43ebacked Over | 59c | 20.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd192…a0d0backed Over | 61c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5649…99adbacked Over | 63c | 17.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa146…1d57backed Over | 78c | 12.86$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.83 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 71cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Augsburg vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 2.5this page
- FC Augsburg vs. VfB Stuttgart: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Augsburg vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Augsburg vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 3.5Over won
- FC Augsburg vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: FC Augsburg (-1.5)VfB Stuttgart won
- Spread: VfB Stuttgart (-1.5)VfB Stuttgart won
- Spread: VfB Stuttgart (-2.5)VfB Stuttgart won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.