TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,120
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,137

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,120 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7760…21f0backed Under33c1,408$462 inWon+$945.532,37547.3%1,123 W · 1,252 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed Over68c649.71$442 inLost-$441.81,88453%998 W · 886 L+16.4wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f29…f03dbacked Over69c452.08$313 inLost-$313.1348145.3%218 W · 263 L-15.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7511…582ebacked Over68c288.24$196 inLost-$19670154.2%380 W · 321 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c54…7e41backed Over65c170.77$111 inLost-$1111323.1%3 W · 10 L-4.8wins-0.37per pick60cpaid-54.9%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0xa877…2e20backed Under33c152$50 inWon+$101.8472648.1%349 W · 377 L-17.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under30c118.71$36 inWon+$83.18,40347.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L+76.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d10…940abacked Under32c112.48$36 inWon+$76.491,01447.7%484 W · 530 L-28.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf9ef…20ebbacked Over65c106$69 inLost-$68.8437357.4%214 W · 159 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcebf…832ebacked Under70c100$70 inWon+$303956.4%22 W · 17 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+14.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4f31…2d48backed Over65c60.28$39 inLost-$39.182748.1%13 W · 14 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick56cpaid-13.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb171…7d2bbacked Over65c46.15$30 inLost-$305354.7%29 W · 24 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2003…af6fbacked Over65c20$13 inLost-$1312446%57 W · 67 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+22.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.