MLB · resolved market
Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4eb5faf7562a2024c96060a8931c367cda2a2333b06a71854a4518ab5905959e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,504
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,766
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,504 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 41c | 9,251$3,767 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,767.12 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 59c | 5,000$2,950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,050 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 42c | 2,467$1,036 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,430.66 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d9…9e0ebacked Over | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 50c | 1,956$978 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$977.88 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 57c | 1,209$687 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$521.42 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 51c | 866.4$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.74 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x135d…56c0backed Over | 49c | 816.33$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Over | 58c | 646.32$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.13 | 383 | 53.5%205 W · 178 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed Under | 35c | 631.62$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.55 | 399 | 48.1%192 W · 207 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 64c | 559.33$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.97 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa11f…1252backed Over | 65c | 539.49$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.67 | 186 | 51.1%95 W · 91 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 59c | 400.15$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.06 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 41c | 326.7$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.34 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 59c | 300$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Under | 60c | 250$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 726 | 48.1%349 W · 377 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Over | 60c | 222.02$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.39 | 827 | 41.1%340 W · 487 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Under | 60c | 200$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 707 | 44.7%316 W · 391 L | -22.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 60c | 194$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.6 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 41c | 187.89$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.82 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 29c | 143.4$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.13 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05b7…c24abacked Over | 45c | 126.12$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.75 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | -23.2wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd3…5896backed Over | 38c | 122.02$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.37 | 174 | 46%80 W · 94 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a7…e5d4backed Under | 61c | 104.44$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.62 | 328 | 57.9%190 W · 138 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 753 | 44.1%332 W · 421 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Under | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 373 | 57.4%214 W · 159 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d09…7dfbbacked Over | 41c | 87.63$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.8 | 330 | 32.7%108 W · 222 L | -22.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6646…0c6ebacked Over | 59c | 82.81$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.86 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Over | 44c | 77.71$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.07 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Under | 64c | 75.63$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.45 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 58c | 75.28$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.74 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 50c | 59.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.62 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Under | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.53 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62e1…bc53backed Over | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea10…a070backed Over | 59c | 41.43$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 300 | 48%144 W · 156 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 58c | 40.07$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.38 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 64c | 39$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Over | 56c | 32.44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec7…ed98backed Over | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 53c | 30.55$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.36 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Over | 65c | 29.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Over | 39c | 28.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 447 | 37.4%167 W · 280 L | -24.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 56c | 27.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabf8…4d13backed Over | 60c | 26.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1be5…9d53backed Over | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6a1…5a4fbacked Under | 61c | 23.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Under | 57c | 23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 6.5this page
- Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta BravesChicago Cubs won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 10.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 2.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 4.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 5.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-3.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-4.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta BravesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.