MLB · resolved market
Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1f1d086bf97c547ca0cd8219a32b79858cb2412a850e7a0bc0a26b4eef21b7d8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,912
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,634
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,912 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Under | 42c | 1,093$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630.71 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 56c | 625$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275 | 191 | 53.9%103 W · 88 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Over | 38c | 600$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 827 | 41.1%340 W · 487 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 44c | 575$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…f03dbacked Over | 59c | 508.78$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 475 | 45.9%218 W · 257 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 57c | 437.3$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.44 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Over | 40c | 331$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.4 | 750 | 49.7%373 W · 377 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 60c | 322$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.8 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 49c | 289.06$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.84 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 40c | 240.55$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.33 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcebf…832ebacked Under | 61c | 200$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Under | 42c | 120.74$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.03 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Under | 43c | 117$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.69 | 726 | 48.1%349 W · 377 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 25c | 111.1$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.36 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Over | 40c | 75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 614 | 50.8%312 W · 302 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed Under | 55c | 63.79$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.7 | 399 | 48.1%192 W · 207 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 75c | 54$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3eec…df90backed Under | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49dd…a40bbacked Over | 45c | 43.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +3.6wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…3d0ebacked Under | 73c | 26.55$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.09 | 265 | 53.2%141 W · 124 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 52c | 25.77$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7701…6ea2backed Over | 57c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 170 | 51.8%88 W · 82 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 60c | 21.55$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.62 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 70c | 21.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Under | 76c | 15.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.66 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5this page
- Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta BravesChicago Cubs won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 10.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 2.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 4.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 5.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 6.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-3.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-4.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta BravesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.