MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x93a1e477deb0c6fdf9816258d3df2f5439d52c11b66c42b4f34490b5f6ef7429
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,434
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,102
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,434 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7b10…acabbacked No | 58c | 4,323$2,512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,810.86 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a10…543cbacked No | 60c | 2,905$1,742 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,162.78 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Yes | 40c | 1,888$755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$755.3 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Yes | 44c | 1,692$745 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$744.65 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 42c | 1,241$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515.08 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…9a1fbacked Yes | 42c | 984$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.68 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed Yes | 40c | 750$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 503 | 37.2%187 W · 316 L | -42.3wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 43c | 705.96$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.04 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Yes | 40c | 615.15$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.06 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed No | 52c | 499.99$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 753 | 44.1%332 W · 421 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd38…99d4backed Yes | 42c | 479.33$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.32 | 267 | 59.2%158 W · 109 L | +17.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0a1…e6d5backed No | 56c | 353.57$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.57 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Yes | 48c | 332.79$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.74 | 780 | 52.2%407 W · 373 L | +22.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked No | 60c | 310$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124 | 674 | 44.1%297 W · 377 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f5…3e7abacked No | 59c | 270$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.9 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3234…8b1abacked Yes | 56c | 200$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 76 | 44.7%34 W · 42 L | -8.1wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Yes | 49c | 183.6$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.84 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked No | 45c | 137.71$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.74 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked No | 59c | 133.27$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.97 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Yes | 42c | 122.22$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.82 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Yes | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 443 | 48.5%215 W · 228 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46b6…7ef6backed No | 56c | 106$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Yes | 38c | 91.19$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.27 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed No | 47c | 91$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.23 | 777 | 52.1%405 W · 372 L | +36.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked No | 56c | 90$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yes | 46c | 82$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.37 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd190…e445backed No | 56c | 71.58$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 164 | 56.7%93 W · 71 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34bb…f3e4backed No | 56c | 62.5$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 87 | 40.2%35 W · 52 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 53c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99f1…1ebdbacked No | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 126 | 54%68 W · 58 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77e1…0d6bbacked No | 60c | 41.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked No | 44c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 477 | 43%205 W · 272 L | -12.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Yes | 41c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 950 | 41.5%394 W · 556 L | -48.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc905…0dfdbacked No | 56c | 33.61$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9b…7272backed No | 56c | 33.59$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -4.7wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked No | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 486 | 53.7%261 W · 225 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x590a…c459backed Yes | 41c | 28.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 114 | 51.8%59 W · 55 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b25…10aabacked Yes | 43c | 25.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 156 | 50%78 W · 78 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 53c | 22.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd78e…6421backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 237 | 50.6%120 W · 117 L | -11.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Bravesthis page
- Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta BravesChicago Cubs won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 10.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 2.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 4.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 5.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 6.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-3.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-4.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)Atlanta Braves won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.