MLB · resolved market
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4501db30eeb3036ebcc0ac8fadd95f2042cbe8ac942bef142d8738cf8904510a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chicago Cubsof Atlanta Braves, Chicago Cubs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,594
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,545
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,594 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Chicago Cubs | 72c | 1,389$999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.19 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Atlanta Braves | 69c | 1,040$721 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720.65 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Atlanta Braves | 27c | 1,000$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Chicago Cubs | 31c | 425.72$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.47 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Chicago Cubs | 32c | 376.79$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.99 | 674 | 44.1%297 W · 377 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Atlanta Braves | 30c | 353$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.32 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Atlanta Braves | 57c | 265.8$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.48 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Atlanta Braves | 12c | 250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 17cpaid | +118%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Atlanta Braves | 70c | 227.99$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.59 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Chicago Cubs | 30c | 227.99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.59 | 272 | 54.4%148 W · 124 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…1867backed Atlanta Braves | 35c | 221.63$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.88 | 293 | 44.7%131 W · 162 L | +13.0wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Atlanta Braves | 71c | 173$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.83 | 726 | 48.1%349 W · 377 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bba…49babacked Chicago Cubs | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.67 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +5.5wins | +0.18per pick | 35cpaid | +931.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5cbc…1d39backed Atlanta Braves | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Chicago Cubs | 67c | 135.76$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.61 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Atlanta Braves | 31c | 128.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.52 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Atlanta Braves | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 614 | 50.8%312 W · 302 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Chicago Cubs | 29c | 98.9$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.22 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Chicago Cubs | 62c | 80.35$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.14 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3323…f667backed Chicago Cubs | 31c | 70.97$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.97 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Atlanta Braves | 67c | 68.75$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.32 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Chicago Cubs | 33c | 65$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.55 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Atlanta Braves | 36c | 52.54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Chicago Cubs | 31c | 50.75$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.18 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Atlanta Braves | 30c | 50.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Chicago Cubs | 70c | 45.44$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.63 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Chicago Cubs | 31c | 40.39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.87 | 403 | 41.4%167 W · 236 L | -20.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Atlanta Braves | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Chicago Cubs | 31c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 416 | 37.5%156 W · 260 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4658…4131backed Atlanta Braves | 67c | 32.2$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.57 | 491 | 58.9%289 W · 202 L | +30.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Atlanta Braves | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 225 | 54.7%123 W · 102 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca2…1d74backed Chicago Cubs | 72c | 23.87$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe82f…85d2backed Chicago Cubs | 70c | 20.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.96 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)this page
- Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta BravesChicago Cubs won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 10.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 2.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 4.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 5.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 6.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-3.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-4.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta BravesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.