Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on July 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0aff473950dc2c3e9e6cb2361c4f9c97adb9f44eb36bd66aabcf839459cba859
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,705
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,039
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,705 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x14db…7cafbacked No | 21c | 1,050$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.17 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 79c | 348.72$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.23 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 16c | 255.74$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.35 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…12d4backed Yes | 78c | 205$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.35 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.7wins | -0.29per pick | 52cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a6…aed7backed Yes | 72c | 170.83$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.07 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 19c | 160.36$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.94 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 65c | 145$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.75 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked Yes | 80c | 140$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 76c | 132$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f46…7a71backed No | 19c | 124.14$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.61 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +65.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa23e…bcf5backed Yes | 68c | 118.94$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.6 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 12c | 104$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 27c | 84.59$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 58c | 78.16$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.61 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 32c | 75$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 283 | 44.5%126 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 68c | 69.59$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.15 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 80c | 67$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 39c | 65.54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.27 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 80c | 65$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 35c | 63.16$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.27 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 25c | 60.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 70c | 57.14$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 58c | 55.63$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.3 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 79c | 54$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 66c | 52.97$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.05 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 26c | 51.16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.75 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 66c | 50.44$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.22 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x375b…0ebbbacked Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 72c | 46.39$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.82 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1468…0745backed Yes | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.45 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 57c | 45$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x609f…2fc0backed No | 67c | 44.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 65cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef1b…764fbacked Yes | 39c | 43.06$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.45 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | +7.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 25c | 40.97$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.71 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.2 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 64c | 39.87$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 29c | 38.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.19 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ba…1deabacked No | 43c | 38.22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 69c | 37.3$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 57c | 35.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x282c…ddeabacked Yes | 70c | 32.87$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 72c | 31.52$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5686…690abacked Yes | 42c | 29.93$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 48c | 27.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.17 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 58c | 26.93$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d9…cf16backed Yes | 75c | 26.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 59 | 16.9%10 W · 49 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 80c | 26.35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 74c | 25.34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5a…edf2backed Yes | 79c | 25.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes | 71c | 24.69$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.09 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 49c | 21.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.21 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 64c | 18.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…fde7backed Yes | 72c | 17.68$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.98 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0462…8374backed Yes | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 18cpaid | -86.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on July 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on July 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.