Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on July 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa01fa0bbdc6f049b9cd31f2480b1579f8e84084d1bc2fb114e31ebe83fbd55c2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,622
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,710
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,622 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc5f5…5d54backed Yes | 34c | 5,287$1,801 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,801.43 | 283 | 24.7%70 W · 213 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45e6…8fcabacked No | 68c | 1,481$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.74 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +3.9wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 1c | 1,474$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3240…f6ebbacked Yes | 37c | 1,299$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.71 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 43cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 30c | 1,084$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.71 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 43c | 1,063$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.99 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed No | 66c | 500$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -7.4wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 68c | 482.12$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.28 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 67c | 476$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.08 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 65c | 440$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.5 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 66c | 396.12$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.68 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 65c | 389.61$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.44 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 8c | 385.5$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.34 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 64c | 337.14$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.38 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 62c | 325$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.45 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 63c | 261$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.57 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 67c | 250$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.5 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 65c | 235.29$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.35 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 11c | 227$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.97 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 63c | 224$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.28 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 63c | 216.33$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.7 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 39c | 176.13$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.25 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 67c | 168$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.44 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4207…b81bbacked No | 56c | 165$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.3 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +4.0wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +47%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 36c | 122.19$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.09 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.5 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed Yes | 41c | 99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.59 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa0…9921backed Yes | 38c | 91.46$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3892…9d03backed Yes | 33c | 90.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 63c | 90$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.3 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 62c | 84.46$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.37 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 49c | 76$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.76 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…74f9backed Yes | 38c | 74.23$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.49 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 59c | 74$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.34 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 35c | 70$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78e9…eac3backed Yes | 33c | 60.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 76c | 57$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.55 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 29c | 55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c7c…2d79backed Yes | 38c | 52.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 64 | 25%16 W · 48 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49d5…1eb0backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbc…e05dbacked Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1468…0745backed Yes | 34c | 45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ec…710abacked No | 67c | 44.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.77 | 135 | 45.9%62 W · 73 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa99f…b306backed Yes | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb0…bd65backed No | 59c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 54c | 39.84$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.34 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3b…ae48backed No | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 250 | 58.4%146 W · 104 L | +22.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 44c | 34.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 33c | 33.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 66c | 31.1$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 35c | 30.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 68c | 30.26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.53 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 54c | 26.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.23 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcff7…2fb1backed Yes | 42c | 25.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 214 | 51.9%111 W · 103 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 49c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 57c | 24.28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.44 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x605e…3aacbacked No | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 62cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 55c | 21.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 76c | 19.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.81 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 61c | 19.68$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 56c | 18.54$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ece…1949backed No | 66c | 15.61$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 173 | 61.8%107 W · 66 L | -9.8wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on July 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on July 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on July 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.