MLB · resolved market
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0b26669efc00d63572592179f0f8e086dd9c4331904d56fdb2b062f00d6c2995
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- St. Louis Cardinalsof St. Louis Cardinals, Toronto Blue Jays
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,405
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,804
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,405 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbca0…9705backed St. Louis Cardinals | 15c | 7,250$1,089 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,160.9 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed St. Louis Cardinals | 15c | 999.99$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$849.99 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Toronto Blue Jays | 8c | 675.52$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.12 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Toronto Blue Jays | 66c | 556$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.18 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed St. Louis Cardinals | 18c | 435.37$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.85 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed St. Louis Cardinals | 15c | 280.28$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.79 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Toronto Blue Jays | 46c | 250.89$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.52 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed St. Louis Cardinals | 14c | 200$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172 | 318 | 44%140 W · 178 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed St. Louis Cardinals | 13c | 174.52$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.33 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed St. Louis Cardinals | 15c | 166.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.67 | 341 | 39.9%136 W · 205 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 26c | 162.26$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.38 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 38c | 125$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed St. Louis Cardinals | 16c | 72.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.49 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed St. Louis Cardinals | 26c | 67.97$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.3 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5040…ac99backed Toronto Blue Jays | 74c | 67.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.3 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 78cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a86…0079backed St. Louis Cardinals | 27c | 65.31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.71 | 108 | 38.9%42 W · 66 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed St. Louis Cardinals | 30c | 58.46$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.88 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked St. Louis Cardinals | 28c | 57.14$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.14 | 459 | 52.9%243 W · 216 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23df…640abacked St. Louis Cardinals | 31c | 56.67$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.93 | 400 | 48.5%194 W · 206 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Toronto Blue Jays | 73c | 14.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Toronto Blue Jays | 80c | 13.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)this page
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Toronto Blue JaysSt. Louis Cardinals won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 10.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 3.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 4.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 5.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 6.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.