MLB · resolved market
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe04c2a401a91b751cbf189721f2e877b930de8306b613205634e30423f6708a6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $132,026
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $131,662
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $132,026 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 48c | 73,773$35,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38,652.35 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Over | 53c | 55,555$29,444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29,444.15 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf559…f462backed Over | 53c | 37,736$20,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,000 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 47c | 12,745$5,990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,755.1 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 51c | 10,473$5,339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,339.49 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 47c | 10,023$4,711 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,312.4 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ef…2864backed Under | 47c | 6,725$3,161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,564.25 | 208 | 45.2%94 W · 114 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…ee8bbacked Over | 52c | 4,500$2,340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,339.99 | 752 | 48.8%367 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 48c | 4,189$2,011 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,178.28 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Over | 52c | 4,064$2,123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,123.14 | 694 | 53.6%372 W · 322 L | +14.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 47c | 4,000$1,880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,120 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 25c | 2,554$627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$627.04 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 47c | 2,531$1,186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,344.27 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 48c | 2,160$1,037 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,123.2 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 48c | 2,093$1,005 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,088.36 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Over | 52c | 2,000$1,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,039.96 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78cc…a081backed Over | 46c | 1,957$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Over | 54c | 1,600$864 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$864 | 644 | 52.2%336 W · 308 L | +26.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 58c | 1,543$899 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$643.58 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Under | 47c | 1,365$642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$723.45 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Over | 53c | 1,200$636 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$636 | 562 | 53.2%299 W · 263 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Under | 48c | 1,101$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576.28 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8efa…894cbacked Over | 52c | 1,001$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.52 | 454 | 45.2%205 W · 249 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 51c | 897.4$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456.32 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 47c | 595.99$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.88 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2396…9485backed Over | 53c | 553.45$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.33 | 287 | 51.9%149 W · 138 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 47c | 500$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3756…b936backed Under | 48c | 461.15$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.8 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -63%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 54c | 459$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.43 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2185…b40cbacked Over | 52c | 400$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 262 | 55.7%146 W · 116 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e94…5ba1backed Under | 46c | 332.6$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.62 | 469 | 49%230 W · 239 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe54d…fdecbacked Under | 48c | 300$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…f03dbacked Over | 53c | 267.32$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.68 | 475 | 45.9%218 W · 257 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…3a74backed Over | 52c | 160$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.2 | 232 | 55.2%128 W · 104 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3992…349cbacked Under | 48c | 156.25$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.25 | 167 | 44.9%75 W · 92 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 47c | 144$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.32 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Over | 44c | 120$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.23 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b4…1306backed Over | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Over | 53c | 99.99$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.15 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x718b…1bf2backed Over | 53c | 91.3$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.39 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.26per pick | 53cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Under | 59c | 90.15$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.24 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 57c | 81.58$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…db3abacked Over | 54c | 80$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 732 | 43.4%318 W · 414 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5016…ada1backed Under | 48c | 80$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.6 | 356 | 50.6%180 W · 176 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Under | 49c | 68.38$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.18 | 527 | 50.1%264 W · 263 L | +19.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56fa…30cebacked Over | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 233 | 57.5%134 W · 99 L | +22.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…83dabacked Over | 53c | 64.75$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.32 | 138 | 51.4%71 W · 67 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 48c | 63.38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.18 | 470 | 56.6%266 W · 204 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73ff…0facbacked Under | 76c | 61.84$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 125 | 75.2%94 W · 31 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf095…58c6backed Over | 53c | 61.4$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.54 | 103 | 51.5%53 W · 50 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Over | 53c | 60.19$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.9 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +28.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Under | 58c | 58.92$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.64 | 424 | 51.9%220 W · 204 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Over | 53c | 57.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 564 | 35.1%198 W · 366 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 48c | 53.74$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.1 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1465…e0dbbacked Under | 48c | 53.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 145 | 44.8%65 W · 80 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Under | 48c | 48.95$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.58 | 487 | 51.5%251 W · 236 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Under | 48c | 46.66$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.26 | 979 | 44.4%435 W · 544 L | -22.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x212b…0ba5backed Over | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 536 | 55.8%299 W · 237 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Under | 49c | 40.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 268 | 57.1%153 W · 115 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Under | 47c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 788 | 54.6%430 W · 358 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 55c | 37.85$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.82 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x292b…697dbacked Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 76 | 57.9%44 W · 32 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09da…50bcbacked Over | 53c | 36.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 305 | 54.4%166 W · 139 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Over | 53c | 35.17$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 2,021 | 39.5%798 W · 1,223 L | -25.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd770…209dbacked Over | 40c | 34.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 152 | 48%73 W · 79 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x472e…f338backed Over | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Over | 53c | 27.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd819…2d80backed Under | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Under | 48c | 24.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.57 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbf…7ce5backed Under | 47c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 121 | 40.5%49 W · 72 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x357a…951ebacked Over | 50c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5this page
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Toronto Blue JaysSt. Louis Cardinals won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 10.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 3.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 4.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 5.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 6.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.