MLB · resolved market
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb9f9a91d7bd8895a6ee06d0ed4faaf0277c9b097cfc3ff8b7a0b951838bd4547
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- St. Louis Cardinalsof St. Louis Cardinals, Toronto Blue Jays
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,161
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,570
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,161 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Toronto Blue Jays | 15c | 6,133$920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$920 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed St. Louis Cardinals | 30c | 5,762$1,729 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,032.97 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 20c | 2,952$595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$594.98 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed St. Louis Cardinals | 28c | 1,364$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$982.19 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Toronto Blue Jays | 69c | 1,015$697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$697.38 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed St. Louis Cardinals | 29c | 968.85$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$687.88 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed St. Louis Cardinals | 34c | 799$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$527.34 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Toronto Blue Jays | 41c | 456.76$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.66 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 72c | 408.47$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.45 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed St. Louis Cardinals | 37c | 297.32$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.31 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Toronto Blue Jays | 27c | 267.84$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.4 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Toronto Blue Jays | 15c | 235.89$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.38 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked St. Louis Cardinals | 35c | 234.34$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.32 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed St. Louis Cardinals | 28c | 200$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 318 | 44%140 W · 178 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…002fbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 29c | 184.63$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.09 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 52c | 143.91$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.67 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked St. Louis Cardinals | 35c | 129.63$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.75 | 459 | 52.9%243 W · 216 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed St. Louis Cardinals | 36c | 99.07$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.42 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 64c | 92$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.88 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked St. Louis Cardinals | 34c | 88.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.03 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked St. Louis Cardinals | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.96 | 473 | 45.7%216 W · 257 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 54c | 79.93$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.04 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed St. Louis Cardinals | 32c | 75$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.1 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x256b…97bbbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 34c | 73.53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.53 | 391 | 49.1%192 W · 199 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed St. Louis Cardinals | 29c | 68.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.9 | 527 | 50.1%264 W · 263 L | +19.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 34c | 64$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.24 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7982…6aaabacked St. Louis Cardinals | 37c | 61.75$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.9 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +3.5wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6676…22f3backed Toronto Blue Jays | 66c | 60.61$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 529 | 47.4%251 W · 278 L | -24.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed St. Louis Cardinals | 31c | 59.14$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72f3…d396backed Toronto Blue Jays | 66c | 55$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 506 | 47%238 W · 268 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…7aefbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 65c | 45.3$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.45 | 399 | 53.6%214 W · 185 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3453…8524backed Toronto Blue Jays | 65c | 45.3$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.45 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x292b…697dbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 67c | 44.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 76 | 57.9%44 W · 32 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed St. Louis Cardinals | 33c | 44.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.58 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd770…209dbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 36c | 37.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.16 | 152 | 48%73 W · 79 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed St. Louis Cardinals | 35c | 34.47$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.41 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1024…9651backed Toronto Blue Jays | 60c | 24.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 335 | 56.1%188 W · 147 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Toronto Blue Jays | 76c | 21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x858c…84b1backed Toronto Blue Jays | 67c | 20.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Toronto Blue Jays | 69c | 18.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)this page
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Toronto Blue JaysSt. Louis Cardinals won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 10.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 3.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 4.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 5.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 6.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.