MLB · resolved market
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x265cf75e66e39a1ccc924f86f7dbcff5f764e0d519aa8d2e8491a7f8ef477ba1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- St. Louis Cardinalsof Toronto Blue Jays, St. Louis Cardinals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,886
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,932
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,886 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 63c | 1,729$1,090 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$638.28 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 36c | 809.25$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.33 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed St. Louis Cardinals | 63c | 778$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.07 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed St. Louis Cardinals | 64c | 769.66$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.77 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa371…eaa5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 37c | 545.95$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -4.7wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 63c | 434.73$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.9 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3453…8524backed Toronto Blue Jays | 36c | 404.21$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.66 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…7aefbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 37c | 393.68$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.66 | 399 | 53.6%214 W · 185 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed St. Louis Cardinals | 63c | 307.45$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.94 | 644 | 52.2%336 W · 308 L | +26.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebf3…50a8backed Toronto Blue Jays | 37c | 263.15$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.37 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -5.7wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -29%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7a41…f527backed Toronto Blue Jays | 37c | 263.15$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.37 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -5.2wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7218…ea41backed Toronto Blue Jays | 37c | 256.4$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.87 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -5.1wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 34c | 243$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.62 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked St. Louis Cardinals | 66c | 182$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.88 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd577…c012backed Toronto Blue Jays | 37c | 135.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 146 | 45.9%67 W · 79 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb8…7017backed Toronto Blue Jays | 37c | 128.21$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.44 | 133 | 44.4%59 W · 74 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf15…a1febacked Toronto Blue Jays | 37c | 128.21$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.44 | 151 | 47.7%72 W · 79 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x282b…cc76backed Toronto Blue Jays | 37c | 110$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.7 | 126 | 46.8%59 W · 67 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf04b…049abacked Toronto Blue Jays | 37c | 105.26$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.95 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -6.4wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x98bd…781ebacked St. Louis Cardinals | 63c | 73$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.01 | 107 | 59.8%64 W · 43 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked St. Louis Cardinals | 66c | 61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.74 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41ea…1bd8backed Toronto Blue Jays | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x232f…8002backed Toronto Blue Jays | 37c | 53.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -5.4wins | -0.18per pick | 45cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x947d…dff0backed Toronto Blue Jays | 37c | 52.63$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -4.2wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa71d…9854backed Toronto Blue Jays | 37c | 51.28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -5.9wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd6…cfdebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 37c | 51.28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -5.3wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Toronto Blue Jays | 28c | 42.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5630…7574backed Toronto Blue Jays | 37c | 39.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 163 | 55.8%91 W · 72 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e46…f2b1backed St. Louis Cardinals | 64c | 38.36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.81 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed St. Louis Cardinals | 64c | 35.1$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.64 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked St. Louis Cardinals | 63c | 34.18$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.57 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Toronto Blue Jays | 37c | 33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed St. Louis Cardinals | 64c | 15.75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)this page
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Toronto Blue JaysSt. Louis Cardinals won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 10.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 3.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 4.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 5.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 6.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.