Tennis · resolved market
Terra Wortmann: Michelsen vs. Medvedev
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0b4c1f297f6d98ac81780b40b0fd84e9e401eea9dfef39aafc4463a040549bea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Medvedevof Michelsen, Medvedev
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,729
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,410
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,729 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5a06…1e43backed Michelsen | 31c | 6,502$2,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,001.15 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Michelsen | 28c | 6,115$1,714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,714.06 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Medvedev | 68c | 5,459$3,712 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,746.87 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf557…18debacked Medvedev | 70c | 5,355$3,743 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,611.63 | 63 | 76.2%48 W · 15 L | +11.0wins | +0.17per pick | 59cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc398…f446backed Medvedev | 77c | 2,329$1,801 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528.15 | 960 | 35.4%340 W · 620 L | -40.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed Michelsen | 30c | 2,034$602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.07 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Medvedev | 68c | 1,763$1,199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$564.26 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60cc…f0dfbacked Michelsen | 31c | 1,634$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 145 | 49%71 W · 74 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19b8…612abacked Michelsen | 32c | 1,563$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -4.0wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x47b1…1306backed Medvedev | 71c | 1,403$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.78 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Medvedev | 69c | 1,000$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…82bdbacked Michelsen | 30c | 999.99$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 220 | 21.8%48 W · 172 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…19e8backed Michelsen | 25c | 919.64$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed Michelsen | 28c | 859.81$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.99 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6332…6128backed Medvedev | 70c | 787.89$552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.37 | 108 | 39.8%43 W · 65 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Michelsen | 30c | 657.32$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.23 | 391 | 44.2%173 W · 218 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45c3…42f9backed Michelsen | 28c | 526.61$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46a6…8c21backed Michelsen | 28c | 399.99$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c17…de2bbacked Medvedev | 73c | 342.96$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.6 | 79 | 57%45 W · 34 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Michelsen | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x998c…6f97backed Michelsen | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | -6.0wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…bd6abacked Medvedev | 69c | 295.36$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.36 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Medvedev | 78c | 286.76$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.04 | 100 | 46%46 W · 54 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff92…f22cbacked Medvedev | 71c | 246.31$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.43 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x045c…5861backed Michelsen | 14c | 170$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 152 | 46.7%71 W · 81 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad94…85b1backed Michelsen | 31c | 159.42$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.42 | 122 | 31.1%38 W · 84 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Michelsen | 13c | 149.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 1,090 | 35.9%391 W · 699 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcec6…7566backed Medvedev | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10f4…3b7ebacked Medvedev | 70c | 143.63$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.63 | 130 | 44.6%58 W · 72 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99a6…aac8backed Medvedev | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f7…58dbbacked Michelsen | 25c | 134.98$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.44 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Michelsen | 32c | 125.13$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.8 | 267 | 46.1%123 W · 144 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Medvedev | 70c | 122.7$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.81 | 1,258 | 50%629 W · 629 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d6…0062backed Michelsen | 33c | 101.58$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.52 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Medvedev | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 629 | 52.1%328 W · 301 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf36…94e8backed Medvedev | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +4.0wins | +0.29per pick | 50cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5a…7618backed Michelsen | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 253 | 30%76 W · 177 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8af…4900backed Medvedev | 68c | 85$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 173 | 49.1%85 W · 88 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…e969backed Medvedev | 74c | 77.76$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.22 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d4…8d3cbacked Medvedev | 76c | 64$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | -7.5wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf442…ccf8backed Michelsen | 32c | 51.94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.62 | 68 | 32.4%22 W · 46 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Medvedev | 70c | 42.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 2,339 | 46.6%1,090 W · 1,249 L | +55.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Michelsen | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 93 | 59.1%55 W · 38 L | +8.0wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab2…e698backed Medvedev | 69c | 29.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60d4…f1e4backed Medvedev | 72c | 20.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa33f…fedbbacked Medvedev | 77c | 14.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.42 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.