WNBA · resolved market
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0b51340ddbcedc7c3663ca940ca3fd3a1718d820a5a7ad8b9bacc22660e5a147
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Las Vegas Acesof Las Vegas Aces, Golden State Valkyries
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,991
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,449
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,991 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf070…ac55backed Las Vegas Aces | 53c | 11,318$5,999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,319.45 | 107 | 49.5%53 W · 54 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…a2d1backed Golden State Valkyries | 51c | 8,195$4,139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,139.25 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Golden State Valkyries | 47c | 7,337$3,448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,448.25 | 227 | 48.5%110 W · 117 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2579…9d48backed Golden State Valkyries | 51c | 4,553$2,322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,322 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Las Vegas Aces | 49c | 4,131$2,028 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,102.73 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Golden State Valkyries | 50c | 3,899$1,957 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,957.12 | 96 | 51%49 W · 47 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafe4…f3f7backed Las Vegas Aces | 50c | 2,232$1,116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,115.96 | 274 | 49.6%136 W · 138 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Las Vegas Aces | 50c | 2,008$1,004 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,004.26 | 893 | 49.4%441 W · 452 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x617b…a499backed Las Vegas Aces | 51c | 2,000$1,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$990 | 140 | 60%84 W · 56 L | +13.7wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbf…0eb4backed Golden State Valkyries | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 84 | 47.6%40 W · 44 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Las Vegas Aces | 49c | 1,086$532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$553.82 | 462 | 47%217 W · 245 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc65…96c8backed Las Vegas Aces | 50c | 458$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Golden State Valkyries | 52c | 275.02$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.01 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Las Vegas Aces | 50c | 250$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 121 | 44.6%54 W · 67 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Golden State Valkyries | 54c | 231.48$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0aef…db15backed Las Vegas Aces | 46c | 231.48$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd37…e117backed Las Vegas Aces | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 92 | 54.3%50 W · 42 L | +8.1wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +24%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb946…2671backed Las Vegas Aces | 50c | 198.28$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.89 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…d984backed Las Vegas Aces | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08a1…10dcbacked Golden State Valkyries | 52c | 144.23$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1edb…a60bbacked Las Vegas Aces | 51c | 127.41$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.43 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Las Vegas Aces | 51c | 120$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.8 | 270 | 49.6%134 W · 136 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c30…34f5backed Las Vegas Aces | 67c | 107.46$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.46 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…086ebacked Las Vegas Aces | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6628…05aebacked Golden State Valkyries | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Golden State Valkyries | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Las Vegas Aces | 53c | 81.48$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.3 | 610 | 42.5%259 W · 351 L | -31.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Las Vegas Aces | 50c | 69.6$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.9 | 922 | 48.8%450 W · 472 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Golden State Valkyries | 37c | 65.72$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.47 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Las Vegas Aces | 50c | 62.21$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.14 | 132 | 56.1%74 W · 58 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Las Vegas Aces | 51c | 59.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.3 | 137 | 45.3%62 W · 75 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacfc…f2fdbacked Las Vegas Aces | 51c | 39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.11 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.6wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +111%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x692c…aadebacked Las Vegas Aces | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Golden State Valkyries | 50c | 36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 131 | 43.5%57 W · 74 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Las Vegas Aces | 52c | 32.95$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.82 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd22f…d0eebacked Golden State Valkyries | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x123e…eed4backed Golden State Valkyries | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf58…2bf4backed Golden State Valkyries | 49c | 26.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc130…4d91backed Las Vegas Aces | 53c | 22.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-2.5)this page
- Las Vegas Aces vs. Golden State ValkyriesLas Vegas Aces won
- Las Vegas Aces vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 167.5Over won
- Las Vegas Aces vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 168.5Over won
- Las Vegas Aces vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 169.5Over won
- Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-1.5)Las Vegas Aces won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.