WNBA · resolved market
Las Vegas Aces vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 169.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x656177d0dd4597649e4a4bd2c9f1ce81a5fce1a9ea17d51f075841541adefe34
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,952
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,782
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,952 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Under | 56c | 6,467$3,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,600 | 87 | 62.1%54 W · 33 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 45c | 4,348$1,940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,407.54 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 45c | 1,837$820 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,016.64 | 893 | 49.4%441 W · 452 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc65…19a0backed Over | 46c | 686.31$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.61 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +157.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe05…c67cbacked Under | 55c | 632.97$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.84 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +3.3wins | +0.19per pick | 57cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 40c | 474.32$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.66 | 262 | 47.7%125 W · 137 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf052…bedebacked Under | 59c | 281.67$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71bc…7fe4backed Over | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 149 | 48.3%72 W · 77 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf3f…1365backed Under | 53c | 188.87$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Under | 57c | 184.17$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.61 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +117.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Over | 46c | 180$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.2 | 167 | 45.5%76 W · 91 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 58c | 153.81$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.85 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 54c | 144.86$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.22 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Under | 54c | 143.71$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.6 | 296 | 54.4%161 W · 135 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Over | 40c | 131.67$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79 | 387 | 44.7%173 W · 214 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 45c | 120$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.6 | 922 | 48.8%450 W · 472 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x987b…3d00backed Under | 56c | 116.88$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | -10.1wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a9…87e2backed Over | 44c | 99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.44 | 77 | 59.7%46 W · 31 L | +9.0wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x81ea…8b9abacked Under | 53c | 85$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Under | 50c | 75$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 610 | 42.5%259 W · 351 L | -31.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Over | 47c | 70$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.3 | 137 | 45.3%62 W · 75 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5ce…e232backed Over | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.22 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.34per pick | 50cpaid | +70.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Over | 45c | 62.59$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.13 | 132 | 56.1%74 W · 58 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Under | 57c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 173 | 50.3%87 W · 86 L | -8.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 45c | 60$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 236 | 44.9%106 W · 130 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 50c | 57.49$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 851 | 58.4%497 W · 354 L | +70.2wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa110…9b09backed Under | 53c | 56.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3b…d591backed Under | 48c | 51.16$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.39 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee60…6902backed Over | 52c | 37.32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.99 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +7.0wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Under | 54c | 20.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 426 | 49.3%210 W · 216 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd37…e117backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 92 | 54.3%50 W · 42 L | +8.1wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +24%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Las Vegas Aces vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 169.5this page
- Las Vegas Aces vs. Golden State ValkyriesLas Vegas Aces won
- Las Vegas Aces vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 167.5Over won
- Las Vegas Aces vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 168.5Over won
- Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-1.5)Las Vegas Aces won
- Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-2.5)Las Vegas Aces won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.