WNBA · resolved market
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb20ac1501ceac4d0dc434b986d9854ad339bb9e12bde86c4d4c2b25ee1a4bf2c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Las Vegas Acesof Las Vegas Aces, Golden State Valkyries
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,805
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,606
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,805 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Las Vegas Aces | 49c | 2,812$1,373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,438.85 | 1,787 | 51.7%924 W · 863 L | +54.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Golden State Valkyries | 50c | 2,364$1,181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,181.44 | 135 | 38.5%52 W · 83 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32f1…c96ebacked Golden State Valkyries | 29c | 1,300$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381 | 113 | 49.6%56 W · 57 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Las Vegas Aces | 53c | 754$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.56 | 327 | 49.5%162 W · 165 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8443…2988backed Golden State Valkyries | 55c | 697.76$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.77 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -46%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3673…2d13backed Las Vegas Aces | 55c | 279.98$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.99 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Las Vegas Aces | 53c | 242.26$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.74 | 188 | 44.1%83 W · 105 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x987b…3d00backed Las Vegas Aces | 56c | 232.14$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.14 | 134 | 48.5%65 W · 69 L | -9.7wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc37e…9e64backed Golden State Valkyries | 45c | 202.75$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.47 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Golden State Valkyries | 45c | 201.78$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.18 | 904 | 49.4%447 W · 457 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Las Vegas Aces | 53c | 188.66$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.67 | 657 | 51.4%338 W · 319 L | +2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Golden State Valkyries | 39c | 159.68$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.81 | 1,632 | 50.2%819 W · 813 L | +37.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c30…34f5backed Las Vegas Aces | 73c | 146.16$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.8 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Golden State Valkyries | 38c | 75.45$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.74 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5559…2bd2backed Golden State Valkyries | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8761…8e15backed Las Vegas Aces | 54c | 51.16$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.66 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Las Vegas Aces | 53c | 50.32$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.65 | 427 | 49.4%211 W · 216 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Golden State Valkyries | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 153 | 46.4%71 W · 82 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa64b…e453backed Golden State Valkyries | 44c | 45.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -5.4wins | -0.36per pick | 49cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Las Vegas Aces | 59c | 41.54$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.96 | 414 | 46.6%193 W · 221 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Golden State Valkyries | 59c | 37$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.83 | 153 | 37.9%58 W · 95 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Las Vegas Aces | 55c | 30.01$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.56 | 196 | 46.9%92 W · 104 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa110…9b09backed Golden State Valkyries | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee16…16a2backed Las Vegas Aces | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-1.5)this page
- Las Vegas Aces vs. Golden State ValkyriesLas Vegas Aces won
- Las Vegas Aces vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 167.5Over won
- Las Vegas Aces vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 168.5Over won
- Las Vegas Aces vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 169.5Over won
- Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-2.5)Las Vegas Aces won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.