MLB · resolved market
Will USA make the 2026 World Baseball Classic final?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0b5b27677cb5fcef20c1b5ef9032a67dfdb8638b4a845d0d650de05e91228541
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,163
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,163 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x441d…544dbacked No | 22c | 1,500$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | +8.9wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x51b1…7865backed No | 8c | 600$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 9c | 276.24$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.39 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +5.6wins | +0.24per pick | 11cpaid | +228.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd1de…74e2backed No | 36c | 249.98$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +742.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 36c | 206$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.16 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7b…6c06backed No | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 10c | 185.54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 64c | 146.25$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.65 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed Yes | 48c | 144.7$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.24 | 125 | 52%65 W · 60 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a80…c54cbacked No | 63c | 134.65$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.58 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd282…a206backed No | 47c | 125.1$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9907…8a50backed Yes | 60c | 73.01$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed Yes | 48c | 51.29$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 51c | 48$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cee…fb6abacked No | 63c | 48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa81a…216bbacked Yes | 73c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 65c | 22.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 66cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1a…6bccbacked Yes | 53c | 20.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +99.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf35b…8043backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.41per pick | 61cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad38…f248backed Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will USA make the 2026 World Baseball Classic final?this page
- Will Dominican Republic make the 2026 World Baseball Classic final?No won
- Will Italy make the 2026 World Baseball Classic final?No won
- Will Japan make the 2026 World Baseball Classic final?No won
- Will Korea make the 2026 World Baseball Classic final?No won
- Will Puerto Rico make the 2026 World Baseball Classic final?No won
- Will Venezuela make the 2026 World Baseball Classic final?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.