MLB · resolved market
Will Venezuela make the 2026 World Baseball Classic final?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3d5ae2fba0e48a8666cda3fddb034b9b2284535ed6b123985802e93e939fdfc9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,558
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,558 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 18c | 2,128$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.28 | 457 | 32.2%147 W · 310 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed No | 11c | 1,602$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.6 | 65 | 24.6%16 W · 49 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 31c | 1,209$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.91 | 125 | 52%65 W · 60 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76f4…200ebacked Yes | 69c | 985.23$679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.95 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.6wins | -0.28per pick | 51cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0d79…268fbacked No | 37c | 700.79$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -22%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 58c | 446.4$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.64 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82cf…3d55backed No | 37c | 434.5$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.06 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x441d…544dbacked Yes | 52c | 357$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.29 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | +8.9wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff4…d735backed No | 18c | 300.53$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.68 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 21cpaid | +67.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x60f7…050bbacked Yes | 64c | 300$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4342…5797backed Yes | 74c | 270.73$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.73 | 89 | 60.7%54 W · 35 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21d7…d22ebacked Yes | 73c | 267.65$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.92 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 66cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc44d…935cbacked Yes | 62c | 234.97$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.29 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc224…5f98backed No | 70c | 215$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7f…dcdebacked Yes | 67c | 178.87$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.39 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +16%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe363…c894backed No | 35c | 172.57$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.4 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +3.3wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Yes | 56c | 167.99$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.65 | 133 | 45.9%61 W · 72 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cab…63a0backed No | 37c | 159.98$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4464…95d4backed Yes | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 67c | 152.72$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.17 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -3.5wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x62d3…6d42backed Yes | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 41cpaid | +187.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a80…c54cbacked Yes | 38c | 135.1$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.57 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 24c | 128$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.22 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +5.6wins | +0.24per pick | 11cpaid | +228.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3750…baa0backed Yes | 43c | 112.04$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65fc…c072backed No | 57c | 90$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.3 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf5…31f9backed Yes | 48c | 90$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.1 | 224 | 45.5%102 W · 122 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…4dc6backed No | 44c | 81.77$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.6 | 218 | 42.7%93 W · 125 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16a6…142dbacked Yes | 67c | 75.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…f9d1backed No | 33c | 74.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 97 | 45.4%44 W · 53 L | -5.5wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 49c | 70$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.3 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe773…8d3ebacked Yes | 68c | 61.67$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.67 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +475.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 44c | 47.87$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 1,466 | 44.1%647 W · 819 L | +44.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe589…5d00backed Yes | 65c | 46.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e23…3275backed Yes | 66c | 45.92$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3dd…abfabacked Yes | 68c | 42.7$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.66 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +92.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83e8…7b89backed Yes | 59c | 40.06$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.59 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6caf…6833backed Yes | 39c | 38.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.12 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +169.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae5…5e36backed Yes | 48c | 36.29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.87 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf35b…8043backed No | 75c | 35$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.08 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.41per pick | 61cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked No | 40c | 32.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54d1…e456backed Yes | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x250e…e864backed Yes | 50c | 32.21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…2befbacked Yes | 67c | 31.16$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 61c | 30.77$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8a…8f0bbacked Yes | 70c | 29.97$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72bb…281bbacked Yes | 50c | 29.89$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.89 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe51f…4f33backed Yes | 65c | 29.23$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd914…fb05backed Yes | 66c | 24.24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x714d…f5d1backed Yes | 65c | 20.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe098…e1d1backed Yes | 68c | 20.15$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f15…0ce5backed Yes | 66c | 19.22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.53 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Venezuela make the 2026 World Baseball Classic final?this page
- Will Dominican Republic make the 2026 World Baseball Classic final?No won
- Will Italy make the 2026 World Baseball Classic final?No won
- Will Japan make the 2026 World Baseball Classic final?No won
- Will Korea make the 2026 World Baseball Classic final?No won
- Will Puerto Rico make the 2026 World Baseball Classic final?No won
- Will USA make the 2026 World Baseball Classic final?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.