MLB · resolved market
Will Italy make the 2026 World Baseball Classic final?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4ffd918ec207eb5c3a48abe7c9ac361daabe4f5e20ac4125f3889d4b5a27464a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,963
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,963 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe0e8…d627backed Yes | 42c | 1,742$732 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$732.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +66.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e64…89c3backed Yes | 46c | 1,097$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 57c | 848.75$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.71 | 125 | 52%65 W · 60 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe617…f251backed No | 67c | 746.48$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.48 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1de…74e2backed Yes | 9c | 600$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +742.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16e1…d17abacked No | 66c | 381.89$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.18 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x441d…544dbacked No | 65c | 338.88$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.02 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | +8.9wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe15e…ce86backed Yes | 35c | 302.78$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff4…d735backed Yes | 17c | 289.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.74 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 21cpaid | +67.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x60f7…050bbacked Yes | 61c | 238.16$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.82 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d79…268fbacked Yes | 47c | 212.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -22%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…4dc6backed No | 56c | 183.75$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.69 | 218 | 42.7%93 W · 125 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5c…9e02backed No | 66c | 151.12$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.63 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -4.8wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed Yes | 35c | 147$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 58c | 129.5$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.9 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa695…5b1ebacked Yes | 47c | 106.45$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.22per pick | 40cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0828…5cfebacked No | 67c | 105.49$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.27 | 67 | 49.3%33 W · 34 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc224…5f98backed No | 72c | 103.66$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62d3…6d42backed No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 41cpaid | +187.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e31…454dbacked Yes | 66c | 100$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e63…3f8abacked Yes | 21c | 94.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed No | 57c | 76.26$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.79 | 777 | 52.1%405 W · 372 L | +36.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 33c | 74.69$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.39 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 34c | 66.97$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.76 | 392 | 9.4%37 W · 355 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74f9…ad71backed Yes | 37c | 61.55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 53c | 55.64$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.41 | 457 | 32.2%147 W · 310 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a80…c54cbacked Yes | 20c | 55.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef1…cf63backed Yes | 70c | 50.06$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…f9d1backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 97 | 45.4%44 W · 53 L | -5.5wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf35b…8043backed No | 68c | 48.33$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.26 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.41per pick | 61cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb49…1fbebacked No | 67c | 46.65$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.41 | 38 | 68.4%26 W · 12 L | +6.2wins | +0.16per pick | 52cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 75c | 38.27$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 66cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xceb7…8b33backed No | 67c | 31.49$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13e5…1ea5backed No | 67c | 22.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6680…0535backed No | 62c | 22.01$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1a…6bccbacked No | 57c | 18.43$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +99.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed No | 61c | 18.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Italy make the 2026 World Baseball Classic final?this page
- Will Dominican Republic make the 2026 World Baseball Classic final?No won
- Will Japan make the 2026 World Baseball Classic final?No won
- Will Korea make the 2026 World Baseball Classic final?No won
- Will Puerto Rico make the 2026 World Baseball Classic final?No won
- Will USA make the 2026 World Baseball Classic final?Yes won
- Will Venezuela make the 2026 World Baseball Classic final?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.