Dota2 · resolved market
Games Total: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0b69124c907a1201d88b19071c4f58017d717b46e8c899196694327f3e24319b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,234
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,389
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,234 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Over | 1c | 6,704$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.04 | 966 | 45.1%436 W · 530 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 51c | 1,367$697 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$669.68 | 605 | 42.6%258 W · 347 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Under | 50c | 873.53$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.5 | 1,154 | 47.7%550 W · 604 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x363c…9b0ebacked Over | 49c | 650$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.5 | 121 | 48.8%59 W · 62 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8d…01debacked Over | 51c | 490.2$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2fc…b1b4backed Over | 49c | 354.33$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.62 | 153 | 53.6%82 W · 71 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12d3…42e4backed Over | 49c | 244.9$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82a0…14b3backed Over | 50c | 213.96$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.98 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3743…7bc1backed Over | 49c | 195.71$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.9 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed Under | 70c | 152.45$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.46 | 438 | 60.5%265 W · 173 L | +44.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdd88…dadbbacked Over | 49c | 138$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.62 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed1…fd2abacked Under | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 227 | 38.3%87 W · 140 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 49c | 92.39$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.32 | 100 | 50%50 W · 50 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4bc…4347backed Over | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | +6.8wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3308…f04bbacked Under | 47c | 54.93$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.34 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa108…573ebacked Over | 51c | 51.25$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.14 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd331…733cbacked Over | 49c | 51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 165 | 50.3%83 W · 82 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb3…ca8bbacked Under | 52c | 42$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.12 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc800…4117backed Over | 46c | 38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 91 | 42.9%39 W · 52 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8430…3961backed Over | 51c | 37.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 303 | 56.4%171 W · 132 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0a…07fdbacked Over | 53c | 35.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 243 | 49%119 W · 124 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8369…1ec0backed Under | 50c | 29.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0af6…ffdbbacked Under | 50c | 29.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ea…475bbacked Over | 51c | 29.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe90f…a908backed Under | 50c | 28.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 58 | 58.6%34 W · 24 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadbf…5986backed Over | 51c | 25.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca7c…e994backed Under | 49c | 24.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.64 | 231 | 49.4%114 W · 117 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc69b…2076backed Under | 77c | 24.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 188 | 44.7%84 W · 104 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 50c | 22.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 529 | 50.9%269 W · 260 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…5df1backed Under | 49c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00e1…489cbacked Over | 49c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6f…eb72backed Over | 50c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae94…b241backed Over | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 36 | 72.2%26 W · 10 L | +5.1wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Games Total: O/U 2.5this page
- Dota 2: Aurora vs BoomBoys (BO3) - The International Elimination RoundBoomBoys won
- Dota 2: Aurora vs BoomBoys - Game 1 WinnerBoomBoys won
- Dota 2: Aurora vs BoomBoys - Game 2 WinnerBoomBoys won
- Game Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs BoomBoys (+1.5)BoomBoys won
- Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 1?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 2?Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.