Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C or higher on April 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0b7ec8a058f9e73d442f1c7dc2c680a0eb3d8c106a816549d88acb0d4e0122d6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,221
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,747
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,221 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x515c…7587backed No | 5c | 1,025$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.51 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01c0…5443backed Yes | 74c | 183.17$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.04 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 63c | 177.25$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.51 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 65c | 135.02$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.78 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb26c…0eb0backed Yes | 59c | 127.78$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.92 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 53c | 119.99$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.4 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976e…0aa8backed No | 9c | 114.18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed No | 39c | 105$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.01 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97eb…9fbebacked Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 299 | 22.7%68 W · 231 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 65c | 99.39$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.28 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f89…ce9cbacked No | 44c | 99.12$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed No | 65c | 96.5$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.73 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 18c | 96.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked No | 29c | 90.73$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.96 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 53c | 83.3$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.33 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 31c | 64.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 22c | 55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 23c | 44.18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xea6a…3ee2backed Yes | 70c | 43.89$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 104 | 39.4%41 W · 63 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 69c | 38.75$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.09 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ba…33b9backed No | 48c | 37.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd455…a1b2backed Yes | 73c | 35.71$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.64 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 57c | 34.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60e4…f926backed No | 47c | 32.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 56c | 30.08$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.24 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 51c | 27.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48b2…05cebacked Yes | 61c | 24.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa1…596cbacked Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 214 | 48.6%104 W · 110 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbae0…5cd6backed No | 69c | 17.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C or higher on April 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 10°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 12°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 13°C on April 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.