Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on July 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0b8f383f4396f2a0eba383a9ca385f76ac37dd30c9888add4046e4454612c1f1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,192
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,822
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,192 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5500…b4f6backed Yes | 34c | 1,137$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.15 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 34c | 617.21$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.98 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 37c | 410.73$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 67c | 392$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.36 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 66c | 380$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.2 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 65c | 305$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.75 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 36c | 283.76$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.08 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 38c | 246.76$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.37 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 33c | 216.69$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.74 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 61c | 165.83$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.39 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0da…3ff6backed No | 63c | 139$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.5 | 176 | 58%102 W · 74 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed Yes | 37c | 135.68$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 66c | 104.61$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.61 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9484…a173backed Yes | 39c | 100.49$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.97 | 130 | 25.4%33 W · 97 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x018e…c536backed No | 61c | 99.99$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf846…cb9fbacked Yes | 38c | 99.23$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.71 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 61c | 87.09$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.02 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb34b…00e4backed Yes | 37c | 85$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.45 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 39c | 77.31$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.98 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5af3…1534backed Yes | 57c | 68.02$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa873…6b47backed Yes | 46c | 65.79$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 37c | 63.51$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.73 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed No | 62c | 59.22$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.79 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 36c | 57.77$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.55 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c8…0ed9backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed Yes | 34c | 46.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 63c | 44.96$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.44 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3d0…158abacked Yes | 41c | 44.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 75c | 42.15$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 38c | 40.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…86ddbacked No | 62c | 40.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 257 | 58%149 W · 108 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7320…0a3fbacked Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 161 | 48.4%78 W · 83 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x989e…aa30backed Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8adb…9e1dbacked Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 169 | 46.7%79 W · 90 L | -13.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…42efbacked Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | -13.9wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 33c | 39.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf17a…6616backed No | 67c | 37.44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.44 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb8…7809backed Yes | 35c | 34.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 135 | 54.1%73 W · 62 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 76c | 32.4$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x135c…7c21backed No | 65c | 30.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -3.8wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 34c | 29.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 35c | 29.64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 68c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 63c | 27.62$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe54c…2c69backed No | 64c | 27.3$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.78 | 255 | 60.8%155 W · 100 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x549c…100abacked Yes | 37c | 27.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 124 | 38.7%48 W · 76 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 317 | 66.9%212 W · 105 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 293 | 54.3%159 W · 134 L | -25.6wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 60c | 18.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 64c | 15.74$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on July 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on July 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on July 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.