Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on July 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x676e1eeaf312ec837069395683677255641cf2b4e2e0ed6d7705ec8023bebc5b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,740
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,252
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,740 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 28c | 1,262$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.11 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd2…c304backed Yes | 29c | 783.22$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.32 | 160 | 38.8%62 W · 98 L | +18.0wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +123.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 71c | 629.91$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.85 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 27c | 590.45$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.87 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 71c | 542.25$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.22 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 72c | 271$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.88 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 72c | 209.8$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.66 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c54…5cf7backed Yes | 28c | 174.89$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.97 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 72c | 174$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.72 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 29c | 164$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.39 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 30c | 157.16$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.41 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 19c | 154.59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.71 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 31c | 153.61$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.05 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 73c | 145.5$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.9 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…5d96backed No | 75c | 126.59$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.65 | 158 | 41.8%66 W · 92 L | -8.8wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5484…84e8backed No | 73c | 108.05$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.05 | 111 | 69.4%77 W · 34 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 71c | 105.63$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.63 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x018e…c536backed No | 72c | 99.97$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.99 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 72c | 98$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.91 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3d0…158abacked Yes | 26c | 95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.15 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1385…e96abacked Yes | 29c | 90.97$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.05 | 137 | 32.1%44 W · 93 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacb0…4346backed Yes | 28c | 89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 159 | 48.4%77 W · 82 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb532…8577backed Yes | 28c | 86.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.61 | 191 | 33.5%64 W · 127 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Yes | 43c | 71.57$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.52 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4580…4357backed Yes | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 65 | 20%13 W · 52 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 23c | 58.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 69c | 58.24$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.28 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc29…b3b6backed Yes | 31c | 52.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca9c…e62bbacked Yes | 33c | 52.26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 71 | 32.4%23 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 24c | 50.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9484…a173backed Yes | 45c | 48.84$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 130 | 25.4%33 W · 97 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b0…657bbacked Yes | 36c | 47.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf456…d568backed Yes | 43c | 47.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 213 | 38%81 W · 132 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d02…8c5dbacked Yes | 32c | 45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 73c | 43$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 62c | 39.07$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.93 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f3…f816backed No | 72c | 37.91$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 64c | 31.94$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.38 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 77c | 29.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.81 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf508…30a5backed Yes | 39c | 29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e16…7f14backed No | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 220 | 64.5%142 W · 78 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…547dbacked Yes | 38c | 28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 173 | 52%90 W · 83 L | +9.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x135c…7c21backed No | 72c | 27.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -3.8wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 69c | 22.51$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb34d…2a65backed No | 72c | 21.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | -15.2wins | -0.27per pick | 51cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 29-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 76c | 20.47$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.91 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 73c | 20.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.43 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 317 | 66.9%212 W · 105 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x468e…5548backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42aa…7d26backed No | 70c | 19.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.86 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | -8.4wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 73c | 18.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 74c | 17.54$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 79c | 15.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e3e…c58bbacked No | 79c | 13.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.91 | 50 | 64%32 W · 18 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 70cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on July 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on July 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on July 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.