Mls · resolved market
New England Revolution vs. Minnesota United FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0bb24867475c4a0721ae09506f67ec4f206b38c790ee9be5c9d8eef207aaecbd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,786
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,457
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,786 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 55c | 9,384$5,203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,180.71 | 734 | 38.1%280 W · 454 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 56c | 7,679$4,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,379.37 | 278 | 37.8%105 W · 173 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 44c | 6,785$2,986 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,985.57 | 135 | 53.3%72 W · 63 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc72d…fc21backed Under | 45c | 2,500$1,125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,125 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +3.6wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x698b…4426backed Under | 45c | 2,000$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -4.7wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3d8e…7fe3backed Over | 79c | 1,000$786 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.28 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabf5…cfebbacked Under | 44c | 999.99$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.99 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 45c | 999.96$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.39 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 44c | 819.64$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.34 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Under | 35c | 811.22$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.27 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 18c | 798.29$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.71 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 55c | 733.16$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.05 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a6…d584backed Under | 44c | 700$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308 | 126 | 61.1%77 W · 49 L | +8.4wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 45c | 679$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.55 | 429 | 47.1%202 W · 227 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb13…5946backed Under | 44c | 600$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264 | 158 | 58.2%92 W · 66 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 44c | 574.89$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.3 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4844…32c9backed Over | 56c | 448.5$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.5 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc454…8c31backed Under | 27c | 446.98$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.35 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30da…a11dbacked Over | 55c | 363.64$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.64 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Under | 46c | 315.25$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.51 | 63 | 41.3%26 W · 37 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb3a5…cd84backed Under | 45c | 290.16$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…f03dbacked Over | 55c | 272.73$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.73 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +5.7wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x606f…b043backed Under | 44c | 260$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.4 | 117 | 59%69 W · 48 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca89…7bc4backed Under | 44c | 218.42$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.1 | 143 | 59.4%85 W · 58 L | +8.5wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 44c | 218$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.92 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…c2f9backed Under | 46c | 217.17$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd52c…6c59backed Over | 54c | 185.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.14 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 29c | 183.21$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.1 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x014c…38ccbacked Over | 55c | 180.91$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.41 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d62…5409backed Over | 56c | 169.64$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.64 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 66cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa1…6edbbacked Under | 44c | 156$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.64 | 144 | 59.7%86 W · 58 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 45c | 155.91$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.16 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 44c | 154.53$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.99 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6af…b5efbacked Over | 56c | 142.86$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.86 | 109 | 50.5%55 W · 54 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Under | 45c | 142$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.9 | 98 | 48%47 W · 51 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed3…0a22backed Under | 44c | 140$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.6 | 169 | 55.6%94 W · 75 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7f…4c60backed Over | 55c | 136.27$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.32 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ab8…e32fbacked Over | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Over | 73c | 114.06$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.92 | 472 | 40.7%192 W · 280 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5b…9b61backed Under | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f81…2bb7backed Under | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 152 | 59.9%91 W · 61 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd59…2e2fbacked Under | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 135 | 60.7%82 W · 53 L | +7.9wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 44c | 89.37$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.32 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a16…9d73backed Under | 46c | 82.21$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.07 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 65c | 60$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 168 | 53.6%90 W · 78 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed Under | 46c | 52$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.92 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +3.6wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeda9…f624backed Under | 45c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 132 | 59.1%78 W · 54 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 76c | 46$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 461 | 56.2%259 W · 202 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbffb…a60ebacked Under | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc263…1e83backed Under | 46c | 39.63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.19 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 28c | 38.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked Over | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed Under | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 135 | 57.8%78 W · 57 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab92…19e5backed Under | 46c | 25.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae4…e4a2backed Under | 46c | 25.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb4…9cb8backed Under | 45c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed5…2aa3backed Over | 56c | 23.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf58…2bf4backed Under | 45c | 22.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Over | 69c | 21.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New England Revolution vs. Minnesota United FC: O/U 2.5this page
- New England Revolution vs. Minnesota United FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- New England Revolution vs. Minnesota United FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- New England Revolution vs. Minnesota United FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- New England Revolution vs. Minnesota United FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.