MLB · resolved market
Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0bed2594872f5d2a47ca2137f0efc0740e29df4637e0a05382f93fd30bfa9b06
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cleveland Guardiansof New York Yankees, Cleveland Guardians
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,672
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,761
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,672 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked New York Yankees | 21c | 5,468$1,153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,153.31 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cleveland Guardians | 79c | 3,377$2,663 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$714.49 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed New York Yankees | 16c | 2,085$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.67 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Cleveland Guardians | 80c | 647.41$518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.74 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Cleveland Guardians | 76c | 543.76$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.24 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Cleveland Guardians | 74c | 405.4$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.4 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Cleveland Guardians | 67c | 355.35$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.27 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed New York Yankees | 32c | 275.03$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed New York Yankees | 32c | 180$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Cleveland Guardians | 68c | 165.26$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.13 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Cleveland Guardians | 70c | 149$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.7 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Cleveland Guardians | 68c | 99.98$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.99 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked New York Yankees | 25c | 99.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed New York Yankees | 33c | 83.58$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.58 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked New York Yankees | 32c | 74.47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.83 | 674 | 44.1%297 W · 377 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Cleveland Guardians | 68c | 73.24$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.44 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed New York Yankees | 22c | 70.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked New York Yankees | 33c | 63.64$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6a0bbacked Cleveland Guardians | 80c | 42.11$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 469 | 52.5%246 W · 223 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Cleveland Guardians | 77c | 21.04$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 580 | 54.5%316 W · 264 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Cleveland Guardians | 70c | 20.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed Cleveland Guardians | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 228 | 48.2%110 W · 118 L | -9.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d50…d283backed Cleveland Guardians | 79c | 13.19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.77 | 178 | 42.7%76 W · 102 L | -8.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18d2…e9c3backed Cleveland Guardians | 80c | 12.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.53 | 107 | 68.2%73 W · 34 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae3…93c3backed Cleveland Guardians | 80c | 12.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.53 | 60 | 65%39 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)this page
- Cleveland Guardians vs. New York YankeesNew York Yankees won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees: O/U 10.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees: O/U 11.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees: O/U 4.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees: O/U 5.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-3.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-4.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians vs. New York YankeesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.