MLB · resolved market
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc6fb192690cdc8062e720615db974ead9e2cae93def381c1e680b25fca3ab709
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,041
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,962
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,041 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 42c | 2,005$832 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,172.88 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Over | 59c | 1,600$944 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$944 | 272 | 54.4%148 W · 124 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 58c | 844.39$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.86 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 32c | 770.3$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.26 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 34c | 761.94$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.38 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Under | 68c | 441.16$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.17 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Under | 41c | 400$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 66c | 393$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.02 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Under | 42c | 392.74$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.41 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Under | 68c | 338.32$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.26 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Under | 43c | 305.98$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.41 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Under | 41c | 283.18$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.42 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 58c | 271.7$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.26 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Over | 50c | 208.94$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.47 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8fd…3e24backed Over | 57c | 200$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 110 | 47.3%52 W · 58 L | -8.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 67c | 149.45$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.32 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98bd…8a55backed Over | 49c | 147.86$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.45 | 92 | 58.7%54 W · 38 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66df…7ea5backed Over | 57c | 131.58$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 68 | 57.4%39 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 43c | 124$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.68 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 28c | 106.51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.93 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 40c | 102.04$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.22 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a0c…14cebacked Over | 60c | 95.37$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.22 | 145 | 55.9%81 W · 64 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…6d43backed Over | 26c | 78.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Under | 44c | 61.36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.36 | 546 | 51.3%280 W · 266 L | +29.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 43c | 51.18$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.17 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9034…f7dfbacked Over | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 211 | 49.3%104 W · 107 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Under | 63c | 48.2$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.88 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 43c | 44.41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.31 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 70c | 39.29$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 40c | 38.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9af…f4f7backed Under | 66c | 37.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff2a…bfefbacked Over | 50c | 36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 313 | 43.5%136 W · 177 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 71c | 36$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.44 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee84…becbbacked Over | 28c | 35.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 218 | 52.8%115 W · 103 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Over | 36c | 29.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Under | 69c | 26.17$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.11 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Over | 61c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae3…5791backed Under | 70c | 21.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddeb…b711backed Under | 73c | 20.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 57c | 20.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Over | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Under | 66c | 19.54$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.64 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Under | 68c | 18.84$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.03 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf610…741cbacked Under | 68c | 18.79$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.01 | 253 | 57.3%145 W · 108 L | +14.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Under | 72c | 17.92$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.02 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe046…9bc6backed Under | 69c | 14.96$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 111 | 58.6%65 W · 46 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5this page
- Cleveland Guardians vs. New York YankeesNew York Yankees won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees: O/U 10.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees: O/U 11.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees: O/U 4.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees: O/U 5.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-3.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-4.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians vs. New York YankeesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.