MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xed9a2f91da7d79bea3ecb93adf7c98002c764f6eb67f5542918c819446aaf06b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,524
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,551
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,524 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcc0f…b9d0backed Yes | 54c | 1,855$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 102 | 39.2%40 W · 62 L | -6.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed No | 46c | 1,505$692 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$812.55 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Yes | 51c | 204.08$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.08 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e73…b728backed No | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 58 | 56.9%33 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Yes | 51c | 153.74$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.71 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed No | 48c | 150$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.75 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed No | 49c | 130$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.3 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked No | 46c | 130$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.2 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…6872backed No | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 145 | 49%71 W · 74 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed No | 52c | 70$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.7 | 449 | 49.2%221 W · 228 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Yes | 48c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 486 | 53.7%261 W · 225 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca2b…3489backed No | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 292 | 42.5%124 W · 168 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Yes | 52c | 34.11$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Yes | 51c | 29.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 840 | 49.4%415 W · 425 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0249…5b4bbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 252 | 49.2%124 W · 128 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankeesthis page
- Cleveland Guardians vs. New York YankeesNew York Yankees won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees: O/U 10.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees: O/U 11.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees: O/U 4.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees: O/U 5.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-3.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-4.5)Cleveland Guardians won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.