Dota2 · resolved market
Game Handicap: RNX (-1.5) vs Team Nemesis (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0c1776b2493002b9bc4ad30c83cbbc4ec835d30392da407cacb7b863da20be28
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Nemesisof REKONIX, Team Nemesis
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,809
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,067
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,809 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8e8c…65ddbacked Team Nemesis | 56c | 5,132$2,871 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,260.79 | 345 | 44.3%153 W · 192 L | -15.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e62…f6ffbacked REKONIX | 44c | 3,145$1,384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,384 | 106 | 46.2%49 W · 57 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f12…3e35backed REKONIX | 43c | 1,007$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.04 | 99 | 46.5%46 W · 53 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed REKONIX | 44c | 993$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.92 | 779 | 41.1%320 W · 459 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Team Nemesis | 57c | 776.27$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.8 | 772 | 56.5%436 W · 336 L | +30.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc297…b1eabacked REKONIX | 44c | 292.58$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.74 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe59…0d2ebacked REKONIX | 45c | 219.99$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 162 | 43.2%70 W · 92 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6f…3be7backed REKONIX | 44c | 156.82$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a35…6fe0backed Team Nemesis | 55c | 150$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +5.0wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed REKONIX | 41c | 130.03$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.88 | 198 | 57.1%113 W · 85 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4537…fd02backed Team Nemesis | 58c | 128.25$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.25 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x021a…d3aebacked REKONIX | 44c | 128.24$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.43 | 146 | 41.8%61 W · 85 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc59f…954ebacked REKONIX | 44c | 127.27$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | -5.8wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa590…271cbacked REKONIX | 45c | 109.65$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.36 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26be…805fbacked Team Nemesis | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +4.2wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1a4f…9b0cbacked Team Nemesis | 57c | 64.88$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.9 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed REKONIX | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…ab49backed Team Nemesis | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5844…12e2backed REKONIX | 41c | 41.14$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +35%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76b5…a423backed Team Nemesis | 50c | 28.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa1…d5dabacked REKONIX | 50c | 28.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 107 | 28%30 W · 77 L | -8.2wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: RNX (-1.5) vs Team Nemesis (+1.5)this page
- Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs REKONIX (BO3) - 1win Essence Group BREKONIX won
- Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs REKONIX - Game 1 WinnerTeam Nemesis won
- Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs REKONIX - Game 2 WinnerREKONIX won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.