Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on July 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0c975a57d1caec8ca629a7e4cfc2587d6e56176a3ce853cb4faa79448091bc7a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,651
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,759
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,651 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 35c | 3,004$1,045 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,958.93 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 64c | 850.99$548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$547.75 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 65c | 502$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.3 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 66c | 500$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 66c | 500$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 32c | 325.51$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.56 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x384d…8bcbbacked No | 13c | 300$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.1 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 65c | 300$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 11c | 235.22$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.68 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 8c | 198.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 13c | 179.76$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.37 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3473…e864backed Yes | 46c | 157.92$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.72 | 111 | 34.2%38 W · 73 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 43c | 147$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.21 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0c…a963backed No | 14c | 142.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 20c | 110.95$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.65 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…f8bfbacked No | 12c | 105.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +73.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed Yes | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.52 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 14c | 86.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 34c | 73.24$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x034a…0469backed Yes | 35c | 72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.68 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45ca…729abacked Yes | 40c | 60$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 65c | 60$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.8 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea25…0447backed Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 108 | 36.1%39 W · 69 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 192 | 59.4%114 W · 78 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed No | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 262 | 56.5%148 W · 114 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…56b7backed No | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7275…0225backed No | 29c | 45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed Yes | 43c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a0c…4e61backed Yes | 37c | 35.14$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.14 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 37c | 32.84$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.69 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 42c | 30.95$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.95 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80da…9bc6backed Yes | 37c | 28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.68 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 64c | 26.94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 61c | 25.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x404a…559ebacked No | 65c | 24.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 62c | 22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7756…c1e1backed No | 65c | 21.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -3.2wins | -0.32per pick | 62cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 65c | 20.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 70c | 20.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.11 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcff7…2fb1backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 214 | 51.9%111 W · 103 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on July 4?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on July 4?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on July 4?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on July 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.