MLB · resolved market
Tampa Bay Rays vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0ca03f71a7b417c60f5963f138bc358c69fb4caadecb4dfffeb45d28c66ed5fd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $92,970
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $94,261
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $92,970 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Over | 48c | 78,519$37,817 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40,701.84 | 411 | 49.1%202 W · 209 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5919…95acbacked Under | 52c | 29,015$15,088 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,087.8 | 114 | 54.4%62 W · 52 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e77…8c33backed Under | 52c | 25,125$13,066 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,066.08 | 283 | 50.9%144 W · 139 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 51c | 12,500$6,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,400 | 1,151 | 49.2%566 W · 585 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b90…2194backed Under | 52c | 4,000$2,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,080 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Under | 51c | 4,000$2,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,059.99 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc31…4a51backed Under | 52c | 2,531$1,316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,316 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5318…1118backed Under | 54c | 2,224$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Under | 52c | 1,888$982 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$981.76 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 48c | 1,358$646 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$711.75 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf4…66bbbacked Over | 48c | 1,042$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.67 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 48c | 1,005$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.14 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 51c | 902.88$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.38 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 52c | 835.93$437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.15 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4328…11d2backed Over | 48c | 700$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364 | 67 | 49.3%33 W · 34 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x004e…c650backed Over | 48c | 443.25$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.49 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed Over | 49c | 400$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204 | 90 | 21.1%19 W · 71 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2fc…a7c1backed Under | 52c | 394.23$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 57cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 46c | 377.86$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.04 | 650 | 50.3%327 W · 323 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7963…78a1backed Under | 54c | 372.53$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -5.8wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5316…1d07backed Under | 51c | 300$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…dd09backed Under | 51c | 300$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -5.5wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 49c | 296$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.96 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9901…6adbbacked Over | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Under | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 443 | 48.5%215 W · 228 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85a7…d9f3backed Under | 55c | 183.48$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 53c | 169.49$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.48 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 51c | 160.8$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.22 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Under | 15c | 139.92$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 80 | 32.5%26 W · 54 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Over | 47c | 121.82$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.57 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa2…b8e3backed Under | 62c | 116.68$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.34 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Under | 52c | 109.62$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 722 | 47.6%344 W · 378 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed Over | 48c | 108.68$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.51 | 144 | 44.4%64 W · 80 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 52c | 99.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.99 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Over | 46c | 99.99$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.99 | 2,261 | 45.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L | +57.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67b5…7276backed Over | 49c | 97.33$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.64 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +18%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 47c | 77$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.75 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 51c | 70.97$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.29 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf2d…e660backed Over | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +4.6wins | +0.15per pick | 43cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fb…5623backed Over | 49c | 61$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.11 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over | 47c | 59.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.8 | 619 | 48.6%301 W · 318 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Under | 52c | 57.74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.12 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Under | 52c | 57.7$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf5b…24adbacked Over | 44c | 52.04$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.04 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3565…0b17backed Over | 48c | 51.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.88 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b6…4587backed Under | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.51 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.20per pick | 47cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Over | 48c | 45.9$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.87 | 144 | 42.4%61 W · 83 L | -9.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99d5…9622backed Over | 33c | 44.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.85 | 76 | 43.4%33 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44e4…f624backed Over | 48c | 44.43$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dab…029dbacked Over | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d5…a8dabacked Over | 47c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.09 | 209 | 55.5%116 W · 93 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc63a…26a0backed Under | 53c | 25.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Over | 47c | 24.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 69 | 56.5%39 W · 30 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed Under | 51c | 24.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -4.6wins | -0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Under | 54c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 153 | 51.6%79 W · 74 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd0c…282cbacked Under | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5this page
- NRFI: Tampa Bay Rays vs. St. Louis CardinalsNo won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. St. Louis CardinalsSt. Louis Cardinals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.