TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Tampa Bay Rays vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$92,970
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$94,261

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $92,970 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb45a…192cbacked Over48c78,519$37,817 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40,701.8441149.1%202 W · 209 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5919…95acbacked Under52c29,015$15,088 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,087.811454.4%62 W · 52 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e77…8c33backed Under52c25,125$13,066 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,066.0828350.9%144 W · 139 L-0.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under51c12,500$6,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,4001,15149.2%566 W · 585 L-0.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b90…2194backed Under52c4,000$2,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0805149%25 W · 26 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Under51c4,000$2,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,059.9967250.1%337 W · 335 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc31…4a51backed Under52c2,531$1,316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3162951.7%15 W · 14 L-2.4wins-0.08per pick60cpaid-11.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5318…1118backed Under54c2,224$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2006752.2%35 W · 32 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-6.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Under52c1,888$982 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$981.761,35250.8%687 W · 665 L+13.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Over48c1,358$646 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$711.756,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfcf4…66bbbacked Over48c1,042$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$541.676253.2%33 W · 29 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Under48c1,005$482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$482.146,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Under51c902.88$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$460.3867849.3%334 W · 344 L+7.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Over52c835.93$437 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$399.159,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4328…11d2backed Over48c700$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3646749.3%33 W · 34 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x004e…c650backed Over48c443.25$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.496048.3%29 W · 31 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7681…ac03backed Over49c400$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2049021.1%19 W · 71 L-4.3wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-51.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa2fc…a7c1backed Under52c394.23$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.21per pick57cpaid+45.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Over46c377.86$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.0465050.3%327 W · 323 L+0.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7963…78a1backed Under54c372.53$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002733.3%9 W · 18 L-5.8wins-0.22per pick55cpaid-37.2%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x5316…1d07backed Under51c300$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15311647.4%55 W · 61 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xec56…dd09backed Under51c300$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1537243.1%31 W · 41 L-5.5wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-12.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Over49c296$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.961,05347.3%498 W · 555 L-14.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9901…6adbbacked Over48c208.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.3311844.1%52 W · 66 L-0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid+3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed Under52c192.31$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10044348.5%215 W · 228 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x85a7…d9f3backed Under55c183.48$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1008847.7%42 W · 46 L-0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under53c169.49$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.4812,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked Over51c160.8$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.221,26947.4%602 W · 667 L-31.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-13.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Under15c139.92$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.998032.5%26 W · 54 L-5.2wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Over47c121.82$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.571,04150.1%522 W · 519 L+17.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9fa2…b8e3backed Under62c116.68$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.342147.6%10 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid+9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a3d…316cbacked Under52c109.62$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5772247.6%344 W · 378 L-12.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8632…4696backed Over48c108.68$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.5114444.4%64 W · 80 L-7.0wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-7.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Under52c99.99$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.991,28449.5%635 W · 649 L-1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked Over46c99.99$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.992,26145.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L+57.4wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x67b5…7276backed Over49c97.33$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.641656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+18%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Over47c77$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.7510539%41 W · 64 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-8.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Under51c70.97$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.292,29649.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L+37.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf2d…e660backed Over49c61.22$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.223158.1%18 W · 13 L+4.6wins+0.15per pick43cpaid+29.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa7fb…5623backed Over49c61$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.111560%9 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+16.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over47c59.99$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.861948.6%301 W · 318 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8482…3f7abacked Under52c57.74$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.121,06249.2%523 W · 539 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14e4…eabbbacked Under52c57.7$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3050949.5%252 W · 257 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf5b…24adbacked Over44c52.04$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.04366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+41.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3565…0b17backed Over48c51.88$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.8822450.4%113 W · 111 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7b6…4587backed Under53c50$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.511526.7%4 W · 11 L-3.1wins-0.20per pick47cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x0056…a7f7backed Over48c45.9$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.8714442.4%61 W · 83 L-9.9wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-14.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x99d5…9622backed Over33c44.55$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.857643.4%33 W · 43 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid+1.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x44e4…f624backed Over48c44.43$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.27653.9%41 W · 35 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6dab…029dbacked Over46c43.48$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.48862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+18.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd4d5…a8dabacked Over47c41.67$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.0920955.5%116 W · 93 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+10.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc63a…26a0backed Under53c25.47$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.52626.9%7 W · 19 L-2.9wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-25.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa0c5…4291backed Over47c24.19$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.86956.5%39 W · 30 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3dcf…4eb4backed Under51c24.16$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.322630.8%8 W · 18 L-4.6wins-0.18per pick49cpaid-36.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8941…83d7backed Under54c23$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4215351.6%79 W · 74 L-0.7wins0.00per pick52cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd0c…282cbacked Under51c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+27.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.