MLB · resolved market
Seattle Mariners vs. Cincinnati Reds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0cac21a19f88fe8be89ef790acdcce2623137dec9cd4103fd23540dcfa18b253
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cincinnati Redsof Seattle Mariners, Cincinnati Reds
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,411
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,280
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,411 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7239…6591backed Seattle Mariners | 52c | 10,246$5,355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,354.91 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -5.2wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Cincinnati Reds | 48c | 3,383$1,620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,763.23 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Cincinnati Reds | 47c | 2,805$1,318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,486.39 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Cincinnati Reds | 48c | 2,715$1,306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,409.84 | 217 | 48.4%105 W · 112 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Cincinnati Reds | 43c | 2,410$1,038 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,372 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Seattle Mariners | 1c | 2,250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 475 | 4.4%21 W · 454 L | -20.9wins | -0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa2…93ccbacked Seattle Mariners | 52c | 1,900$988 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$987.99 | 248 | 44%109 W · 139 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Seattle Mariners | 51c | 1,484$752 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$752.11 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Cincinnati Reds | 49c | 1,352$662 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$689.52 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…ddfabacked Cincinnati Reds | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520 | 374 | 46.8%175 W · 199 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe25e…0aa5backed Seattle Mariners | 52c | 1,000$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.8 | 145 | 49.7%72 W · 73 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Cincinnati Reds | 27c | 834.85$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$609.15 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea5…2af9backed Seattle Mariners | 59c | 675.12$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -15%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Seattle Mariners | 74c | 534.35$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.75 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f5…84bcbacked Seattle Mariners | 53c | 520.75$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -31%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Seattle Mariners | 53c | 500$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265 | 958 | 50%479 W · 479 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Cincinnati Reds | 47c | 425.53$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.53 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a08…2155backed Cincinnati Reds | 48c | 416.67$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.67 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e87…8befbacked Seattle Mariners | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x745c…40d9backed Cincinnati Reds | 48c | 383.33$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.33 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cbe…12bcbacked Cincinnati Reds | 48c | 368$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.36 | 1,132 | 48.9%553 W · 579 L | -16.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x994e…9cf5backed Seattle Mariners | 50c | 310.67$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.34 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Cincinnati Reds | 48c | 296.34$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.1 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4aa…fa32backed Seattle Mariners | 53c | 279.25$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 58cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Cincinnati Reds | 50c | 210.88$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.44 | 809 | 55.5%449 W · 360 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Cincinnati Reds | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d4b…a250backed Cincinnati Reds | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x931f…d15dbacked Seattle Mariners | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Cincinnati Reds | 49c | 135$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.85 | 867 | 51.8%449 W · 418 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Cincinnati Reds | 36c | 112.86$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.03 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed Cincinnati Reds | 48c | 100.99$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.85 | 432 | 50.7%219 W · 213 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Cincinnati Reds | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Cincinnati Reds | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf235…366dbacked Seattle Mariners | 50c | 89.49$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.85 | 1,078 | 46.3%499 W · 579 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf391…73c3backed Cincinnati Reds | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 295 | 52.2%154 W · 141 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6072…fb46backed Seattle Mariners | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -31%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Cincinnati Reds | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked Cincinnati Reds | 51c | 41.18$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.18 | 405 | 57.8%234 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x235a…2e57backed Seattle Mariners | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 125 | 48%60 W · 65 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…88eebacked Cincinnati Reds | 47c | 27.9$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 283 | 48.8%138 W · 145 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Cincinnati Reds | 50c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 1,466 | 44.1%647 W · 819 L | +44.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Seattle Mariners | 52c | 24.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 146 | 47.3%69 W · 77 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.