Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on May 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0d380786c34c3dc22acdafc4ed9c134d9b7c51e29cee275b26c747a31016ff9c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,035
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,992
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,035 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb19c…cb45backed Yes | 32c | 346$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 68c | 293.99$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.08 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x116d…fbf1backed No | 79c | 271.92$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.09 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +20.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8b35…b8f8backed Yes | 30c | 202.61$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.17 | 88 | 33%29 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 24c | 200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7384…1ebdbacked Yes | 24c | 198.75$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.31 | 140 | 22.1%31 W · 109 L | +10.4wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf1…dd6bbacked Yes | 26c | 114.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +95.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 104.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.61 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 70c | 104.33$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.09 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed No | 65c | 103.48$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.54 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9030…4a23backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.16 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 74c | 98.82$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.04 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 62c | 95.81$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.58 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 22c | 90$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e5b…0324backed Yes | 23c | 85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed No | 71c | 83$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.07 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 28c | 80.36$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 26c | 80.18$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes | 21c | 69.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb740…eabbbacked Yes | 24c | 61.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 239 | 23.4%56 W · 183 L | -17.1wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 31c | 53.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65b7…3798backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 91 | 48.4%44 W · 47 L | +11.5wins | +0.13per pick | 36cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1f…e428backed Yes | 30c | 49.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 99 | 31.3%31 W · 68 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ac…4262backed Yes | 26c | 48.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 74c | 46.67$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.36 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 74c | 34.98$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 71c | 34.48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 30c | 34.27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 77c | 32.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.34 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfe…aef2backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 102 | 28.4%29 W · 73 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc12f…5c57backed Yes | 42c | 29.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 193 | 38.9%75 W · 118 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 76c | 29.41$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…57f6backed No | 77c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.34 | 277 | 69%191 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 80c | 24.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.97 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 69c | 21.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 77c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 75c | 17.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.33 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…b2b8backed No | 77c | 15.01$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 154 | 54.5%84 W · 70 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on May 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 22°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 23°C on May 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C or higher on May 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.