MLB · resolved market
Astros vs. Rangers
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0d88ef236131730cf9bcde99dcdfca8aa5110d272da1b879f5760e8d1bc34ad5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Astrosof Astros, Rangers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,071
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,356
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,071 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed Rangers | 64c | 11,111$7,111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,111.04 | 602 | 49.5%298 W · 304 L | +10.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Astros | 36c | 8,580$3,089 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,491.42 | 981 | 49.8%489 W · 492 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ad…208ebacked Astros | 36c | 2,668$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,707.2 | 217 | 40.1%87 W · 130 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Rangers | 63c | 2,440$1,547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,546.55 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Astros | 27c | 1,586$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,152.03 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Astros | 37c | 1,419$523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$895.64 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…5919backed Rangers | 5c | 1,116$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.93 | 1,180 | 7.2%85 W · 1,095 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3c…ffc7backed Astros | 36c | 1,010$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$646.39 | 885 | 49.7%440 W · 445 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Rangers | 65c | 1,000$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…d0e5backed Rangers | 64c | 1,000$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640 | 333 | 49.5%165 W · 168 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Astros | 34c | 990.32$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$654.46 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19b8…9c8ebacked Astros | 34c | 872.09$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$572.09 | 394 | 36%142 W · 252 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfceb…37dabacked Rangers | 62c | 732.26$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Rangers | 61c | 580.89$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.34 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc91a…c6b8backed Rangers | 67c | 500$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff5c…ccbdbacked Astros | 38c | 394.74$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.74 | 204 | 48.5%99 W · 105 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Rangers | 67c | 371.19$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.7 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee64…3f7ebacked Rangers | 36c | 300$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.34 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Rangers | 68c | 270.44$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.46 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeace…fe6abacked Rangers | 10c | 210$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 132 | 47%62 W · 70 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Astros | 36c | 200$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128 | 932 | 40.5%377 W · 555 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4472…a648backed Rangers | 62c | 157.65$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.74 | 999 | 51%509 W · 490 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Rangers | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Astros | 33c | 154.54$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.54 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Rangers | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce9…7a2cbacked Rangers | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 206 | 45.1%93 W · 113 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9304…f693backed Rangers | 65c | 150$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.5 | 85 | 30.6%26 W · 59 L | -7.7wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbcf…d6a9backed Rangers | 63c | 132.99$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.78 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2920…80bebacked Astros | 33c | 123.02$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.02 | 238 | 52.9%126 W · 112 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf7…b626backed Rangers | 64c | 116$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.24 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x014a…8aefbacked Astros | 36c | 116$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.24 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x698b…4426backed Rangers | 64c | 100.75$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.48 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26e9…4a51backed Rangers | 66c | 100$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 109 | 40.4%44 W · 65 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46a6…8c21backed Astros | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 204 | 48%98 W · 106 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Rangers | 25c | 92.66$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 1,510 | 39%589 W · 921 L | -16.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40a3…6ed8backed Rangers | 75c | 84.67$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.5 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Astros | 35c | 83.29$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.29 | 1,213 | 40.5%491 W · 722 L | -32.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76b5…c1cebacked Rangers | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 91 | 57.1%52 W · 39 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Rangers | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…3d27backed Astros | 37c | 67.57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.57 | 130 | 21.5%28 W · 102 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2366…1078backed Rangers | 70c | 64.5$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 153 | 62.7%96 W · 57 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x069c…96e4backed Astros | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Astros | 38c | 52.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.83 | 979 | 50.2%491 W · 488 L | +49.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Rangers | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Astros | 36c | 45.71$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.25 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea27…8a0bbacked Astros | 33c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Astros | 36c | 39.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 1,466 | 44.1%647 W · 819 L | +44.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Rangers | 65c | 38.51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5f…84bfbacked Rangers | 65c | 38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 1,051 | 50.4%530 W · 521 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05a4…1e85backed Astros | 73c | 34.85$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.27 | 806 | 80%645 W · 161 L | +173.6wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x40e1…c293backed Rangers | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 68 | 69.1%47 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Rangers | 64c | 29.69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 695 | 47.5%330 W · 365 L | -16.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Rangers | 63c | 29.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 416 | 43.8%182 W · 234 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2490…303dbacked Rangers | 62c | 19.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.