South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Deportivo Toluca FC win on 2026-01-14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0d9790562cff35012a9ce0317e50320cb9dedcb154866cc362419fc9121d34ea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,811
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,081
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,811 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 27c | 2,807$769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$768.57 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 74c | 1,041$774 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.24 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb589…33d4backed No | 21c | 952$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.92 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +4.7wins | +0.23per pick | 20cpaid | +138.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 19c | 951.11$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.3 | 816 | 51.6%421 W · 395 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88de…1091backed No | 17c | 899.57$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.93 | 146 | 30.8%45 W · 101 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 20c | 804.3$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.6 | 817 | 40.8%333 W · 484 L | +20.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14fa…73f0backed Yes | 43c | 794.57$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.75 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eee…e8b6backed No | 19c | 509$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.71 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06c2…184fbacked Yes | 43c | 470$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.9 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 57c | 437.23$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.24 | 636 | 44.7%284 W · 352 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 18c | 373.82$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.85 | 200 | 22.5%45 W · 155 L | -13.1wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -34%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Yes | 73c | 340.3$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.3 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69db…283abacked Yes | 43c | 323.81$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.81 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 57c | 252.7$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.09 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x241e…2de2backed Yes | 80c | 236.16$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.23 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 62cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 27c | 233.9$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.53 | 120 | 45.8%55 W · 65 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked No | 38c | 212.18$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.63 | 120 | 65%78 W · 42 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed No | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 398 | 53%211 W · 187 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Yes | 69c | 184$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.04 | 167 | 40.1%67 W · 100 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked No | 18c | 176.73$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.81 | 179 | 50.8%91 W · 88 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 69c | 150$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 329 | 36.5%120 W · 209 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked No | 19c | 149.04$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.82 | 312 | 26.6%83 W · 229 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Yes | 76c | 137.27$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.65 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x454a…4039backed Yes | 80c | 87$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 45c | 86.84$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.37 | 373 | 55.2%206 W · 167 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 33c | 82.16$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.73 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe09e…5047backed No | 19c | 74.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 20c | 72.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 88 | 29.5%26 W · 62 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 47c | 68.72$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.14 | 1,091 | 55.6%607 W · 484 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…ac49backed Yes | 44c | 68.23$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.44 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0192…6995backed No | 62c | 61.46$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed Yes | 78c | 51.28$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 108 | 80.6%87 W · 21 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 76cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 174 | 36.2%63 W · 111 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Yes | 50c | 45.56$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.83 | 102 | 36.3%37 W · 65 L | -7.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Yes | 77c | 45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…592bbacked Yes | 54c | 42.92$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.92 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 78c | 42.7$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.39 | 1,366 | 52.4%716 W · 650 L | +51.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ee…6899backed No | 50c | 41.22$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.61 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2316…b824backed Yes | 80c | 38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…0d67backed Yes | 52c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.85 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -6.0wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 55c | 34.45$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 495 | 35.4%175 W · 320 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9b…e140backed Yes | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa26e…17e3backed Yes | 68c | 32.16$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x518b…cf8abacked Yes | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 58 | 56.9%33 W · 25 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Yes | 59c | 25.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 95 | 22.1%21 W · 74 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e0…b300backed Yes | 58c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 52cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x727d…1589backed Yes | 49c | 20.35$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.28 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd902…d076backed Yes | 53c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2df5…51acbacked No | 58c | 18.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad1b…5da0backed Yes | 80c | 13.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.75 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 66cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Deportivo Toluca FC win on 2026-01-14?this page
- Will Club Santos Laguna win on 2026-01-14?No won
- Will Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Club Santos Laguna end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.