Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Borussia Dortmund vs. 1899 Hoffenheim end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0dbf66e11e166c7edc726ab6e97434ed19d0b439988ecc237d89ae4fa0fd1f93
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,121
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,244
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,121 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Yes | 22c | 5,000$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 166 | 47%78 W · 88 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb784…61d0backed No | 78c | 4,336$3,382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$954.01 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.13per pick | 61cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 21c | 2,842$604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$604.35 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf43…ae9abacked No | 79c | 2,444$1,931 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513.24 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 18c | 1,476$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.96 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked No | 77c | 1,355$1,046 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.66 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 19c | 1,256$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.74 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 79c | 1,168$922 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.49 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 28c | 1,065$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.58 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe930…b44dbacked Yes | 18c | 1,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29bf…1e8bbacked No | 79c | 1,000$790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x303b…53cabacked Yes | 3c | 1,000$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 80c | 996.35$796 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.81 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 78c | 820.63$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.54 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed No | 78c | 500$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6452…30a1backed Yes | 23c | 434.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf91e…7e0bbacked Yes | 23c | 434.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1263…8976backed Yes | 24c | 416.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0df…8f41backed No | 74c | 405$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.11 | 61 | 67.2%41 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 28c | 369.4$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.43 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…1f46backed Yes | 24c | 366.22$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.59 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed No | 78c | 300$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +5.4wins | +0.23per pick | 32cpaid | +73.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…bb37backed Yes | 22c | 227.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8f…6b61backed Yes | 6c | 224$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6e…35b4backed Yes | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 97 | 46.4%45 W · 52 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x154b…4917backed Yes | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f20…87c9backed Yes | 22c | 200$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +72.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6b…075fbacked No | 74c | 200$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed Yes | 20c | 163.89$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.78 | 230 | 46.5%107 W · 123 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Yes | 22c | 150$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 170 | 55.3%94 W · 76 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 21c | 130$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.55 | 343 | 42%144 W · 199 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed No | 78c | 128.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.34 | 147 | 56.5%83 W · 64 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9de2…3adbbacked No | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked No | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 135 | 55.6%75 W · 60 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e6…696bbacked Yes | 22c | 114.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c13…99b7backed Yes | 23c | 109$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51ce…43fabacked Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80d4…770ebacked Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -4.5wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Yes | 18c | 77.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 195 | 44.6%87 W · 108 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb89…46f1backed No | 79c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…0ab8backed Yes | 21c | 56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a24…3845backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 115 | 63.5%73 W · 42 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9adf…3f2fbacked No | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +5.9wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x59f1…6710backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 76cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe601…c728backed No | 78c | 22.73$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 116 | 61.2%71 W · 45 L | +11.1wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x09db…7384backed No | 79c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a1…be8bbacked No | 79c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.57 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +79.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6aac…458bbacked No | 80c | 12.64$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.53 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Borussia Dortmund vs. 1899 Hoffenheim end in a draw?this page
- Will 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2025-12-07?No won
- Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-12-07?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.