Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Valparaiso Beacons vs. Drake Bulldogs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0e08bf55b9d1a9100c4e41cbd8393b89adfa129a5724ee399bc4bbd25186a10c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Valparaiso Beaconsof Valparaiso Beacons, Drake Bulldogs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,722
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,018
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,722 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Valparaiso Beacons | 38c | 2,131$814 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,317.25 | 2,687 | 48.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f4…0566backed Valparaiso Beacons | 44c | 2,072$908 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,164.54 | 244 | 44.7%109 W · 135 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x360b…982fbacked Drake Bulldogs | 62c | 1,674$1,038 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,038.18 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f08…ed44backed Drake Bulldogs | 63c | 1,480$933 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$932.68 | 464 | 46.8%217 W · 247 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Drake Bulldogs | 54c | 1,250$675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$674.65 | 3,380 | 49.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L | +30.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Valparaiso Beacons | 32c | 1,089$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$739.36 | 1,540 | 41.3%636 W · 904 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4090…3e81backed Valparaiso Beacons | 22c | 1,057$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$821.59 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8348…de9fbacked Drake Bulldogs | 2c | 999.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a9…e22ebacked Drake Bulldogs | 60c | 947.92$566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$566.22 | 374 | 41.7%156 W · 218 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x698b…4426backed Valparaiso Beacons | 39c | 899.98$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$548.99 | 118 | 50%59 W · 59 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Valparaiso Beacons | 23c | 899.92$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$690.59 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa8…56dbbacked Valparaiso Beacons | 43c | 825.1$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.8 | 1,058 | 55.8%590 W · 468 L | +34.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Drake Bulldogs | 61c | 772$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.3 | 1,155 | 50.4%582 W · 573 L | -34.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f19…ec51backed Drake Bulldogs | 58c | 563$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.29 | 220 | 50.5%111 W · 109 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…f81dbacked Drake Bulldogs | 61c | 552.09$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.13 | 870 | 47.2%411 W · 459 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Valparaiso Beacons | 40c | 475$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285 | 794 | 48.9%388 W · 406 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Drake Bulldogs | 51c | 460.96$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.77 | 1,531 | 50.1%767 W · 764 L | +34.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Valparaiso Beacons | 39c | 399.99$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.99 | 1,487 | 43%639 W · 848 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Drake Bulldogs | 66c | 318.11$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.78 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Valparaiso Beacons | 40c | 314$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.76 | 1,003 | 55.3%555 W · 448 L | +46.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x59b6…307fbacked Drake Bulldogs | 66c | 303$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201 | 453 | 51.4%233 W · 220 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Valparaiso Beacons | 39c | 300$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183 | 1,260 | 43.3%545 W · 715 L | +34.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Valparaiso Beacons | 39c | 295.15$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.33 | 682 | 54.3%370 W · 312 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf37c…3c74backed Valparaiso Beacons | 32c | 288.85$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.38 | 218 | 30.7%67 W · 151 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc091…3d42backed Drake Bulldogs | 57c | 286$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.14 | 722 | 48.8%352 W · 370 L | -23.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Drake Bulldogs | 57c | 232.48$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.75 | 1,493 | 48.7%727 W · 766 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Valparaiso Beacons | 40c | 225$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 507 | 45.2%229 W · 278 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…eb6abacked Drake Bulldogs | 61c | 209.67$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.99 | 157 | 33.1%52 W · 105 L | -10.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e8d…e22dbacked Valparaiso Beacons | 39c | 190.73$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.45 | 243 | 40.7%99 W · 144 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Drake Bulldogs | 61c | 180.99$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.91 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f8…98f9backed Drake Bulldogs | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 484 | 62.8%304 W · 180 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34ca…9de7backed Drake Bulldogs | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 135 | 61.5%83 W · 52 L | +12.1wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Drake Bulldogs | 52c | 160$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.82 | 449 | 55.2%248 W · 201 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Valparaiso Beacons | 49c | 153$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.78 | 1,074 | 43.3%465 W · 609 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Valparaiso Beacons | 39c | 152.29$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.03 | 2,555 | 41.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Valparaiso Beacons | 29c | 136.78$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.76 | 1,667 | 36.4%607 W · 1,060 L | -4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…abbebacked Valparaiso Beacons | 30c | 125$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.15 | 1,983 | 26.4%523 W · 1,460 L | -55.5wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30ad…6a69backed Drake Bulldogs | 61c | 122.95$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Drake Bulldogs | 53c | 121.04$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.62 | 1,985 | 64.1%1,273 W · 712 L | +144.2wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4650…f3f0backed Drake Bulldogs | 62c | 120$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.4 | 221 | 57.9%128 W · 93 L | +12.6wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Drake Bulldogs | 62c | 118$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.16 | 2,579 | 47.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L | -42.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b50…87fbbacked Valparaiso Beacons | 43c | 117.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.33 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Drake Bulldogs | 34c | 100.13$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.86 | 1,887 | 45.2%853 W · 1,034 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…d3abbacked Drake Bulldogs | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 202 | 34.2%69 W · 133 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00cf…d102backed Valparaiso Beacons | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 214 | 49.5%106 W · 108 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecc2…eeefbacked Drake Bulldogs | 71c | 92.18$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.28 | 72 | 72.2%52 W · 20 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Drake Bulldogs | 59c | 90.51$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.4 | 441 | 46.5%205 W · 236 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Drake Bulldogs | 66c | 90$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.18 | 459 | 53.8%247 W · 212 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Drake Bulldogs | 70c | 84.05$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.84 | 2,254 | 42.2%951 W · 1,303 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Drake Bulldogs | 64c | 75$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.79 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Valparaiso Beacons | 32c | 73.33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.86 | 1,249 | 16.4%205 W · 1,044 L | -189.4wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xec6c…23c7backed Drake Bulldogs | 48c | 72.68$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.59 | 383 | 43.6%167 W · 216 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Valparaiso Beacons | 40c | 67.85$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.71 | 2,048 | 32.7%670 W · 1,378 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb858…7dc3backed Drake Bulldogs | 60c | 66.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71ac…5fd6backed Drake Bulldogs | 60c | 65$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Valparaiso Beacons | 43c | 62.51$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.42 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…0821backed Valparaiso Beacons | 33c | 61.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.13 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Valparaiso Beacons | 41c | 60$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.4 | 2,194 | 33.4%733 W · 1,461 L | +19.2wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Drake Bulldogs | 60c | 58.48$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.09 | 934 | 47.9%447 W · 487 L | -19.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Valparaiso Beacons | 46c | 56.9$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.72 | 998 | 48.4%483 W · 515 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x394b…b793backed Valparaiso Beacons | 38c | 52.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.31 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31ad…8b71backed Valparaiso Beacons | 41c | 51.16$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.16 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | -8.1wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28ad…0614backed Drake Bulldogs | 56c | 50.93$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.52 | 120 | 34.2%41 W · 79 L | -13.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…2022backed Drake Bulldogs | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 39 | 74.4%29 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 65cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8f…1f83backed Drake Bulldogs | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 646 | 58.8%380 W · 266 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b12…7a77backed Valparaiso Beacons | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 523 | 53.5%280 W · 243 L | -17.9wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaafa…3471backed Valparaiso Beacons | 41c | 48.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.72 | 252 | 30.6%77 W · 175 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed Drake Bulldogs | 73c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 309 | 45.6%141 W · 168 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d2…3c94backed Drake Bulldogs | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Drake Bulldogs | 66c | 32.83$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.53 | 2,003 | 53.7%1,076 W · 927 L | +101.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc00c…ddc2backed Drake Bulldogs | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Drake Bulldogs | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 310 | 57.4%178 W · 132 L | +11.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc4…0c92backed Valparaiso Beacons | 39c | 29.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.96 | 990 | 45.6%451 W · 539 L | +9.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Drake Bulldogs | 59c | 27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…15efbacked Valparaiso Beacons | 44c | 26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 191 | 38.2%73 W · 118 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7226…873dbacked Drake Bulldogs | 62c | 19.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23d4…5607backed Drake Bulldogs | 67c | 16.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Valparaiso Beacons vs. Drake Bulldogsthis page
- Valparaiso Beacons vs. Drake Bulldogs: O/U 144.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.