Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on April 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0e35bf97be37ea2a5129664c6aa8fa7bd2bd6109503c7f1449912e5b196d95e4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,010
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,413
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,010 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x27c7…4399backed No | 69c | 531.66$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.72 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 13c | 349.13$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.23 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 76c | 310.3$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.72 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 47c | 281.81$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.66 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 23c | 221.83$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.98 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 28c | 167.21$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.49 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 33c | 157.34$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.06 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d8…56bbbacked No | 61c | 143.48$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.15 | 147 | 52.4%77 W · 70 L | +11.7wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 35c | 116.36$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.03 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23d4…ae0cbacked Yes | 26c | 116.33$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.61 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…cdc1backed Yes | 47c | 106.9$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.24 | 105 | 62.9%66 W · 39 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7385…0c36backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -3.2wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 42c | 98.92$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.59 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76a6…b7dcbacked No | 70c | 97.03$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.77 | 148 | 34.5%51 W · 97 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf31…3255backed Yes | 52c | 80$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f90…4e02backed Yes | 37c | 79.1$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.06 | 146 | 13.7%20 W · 126 L | -19.1wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0b…961fbacked No | 40c | 78.72$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.23 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d3…3f0ebacked No | 64c | 75.89$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.32 | 209 | 58.4%122 W · 87 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc79a…bc53backed Yes | 26c | 75.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1936…a066backed Yes | 42c | 74.55$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.44 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 42cpaid | +81.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 70.35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.29 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 33c | 65.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 29c | 63.34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.32 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 55c | 59.98$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.99 | 285 | 17.9%51 W · 234 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 27c | 58.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 57c | 55$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.65 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 24c | 54.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 29c | 49.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe689…159fbacked Yes | 44c | 48.26$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.05 | 203 | 42.9%87 W · 116 L | +20.8wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e9…0beabacked Yes | 40c | 46.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4d…ee6abacked Yes | 67c | 38.83$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.12 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b9…b47fbacked No | 63c | 38.51$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.37 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd39…43a8backed Yes | 31c | 38.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 123 | 17.9%22 W · 101 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -35%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed Yes | 56c | 30.63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 286 | 48.3%138 W · 148 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 37c | 29.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19fa…e09dbacked Yes | 37c | 28.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd040…c1abbacked No | 71c | 27.31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 62c | 24.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 68c | 23.66$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 71c | 23.58$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 74c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f16…063dbacked No | 66c | 21.08$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a07…923fbacked No | 78c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8349…bb03backed Yes | 56c | 17.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -4.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on April 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on April 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on April 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.