Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on April 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x10d7277cded198ac8f180f127906a477ac1b696bcaa796a01d2df8d9fddceef8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,938
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,900
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,938 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x27c7…4399backed Yes | 52c | 1,318$687 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$631.75 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc239…6459backed Yes | 13c | 1,132$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$979.59 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7327…64f4backed No | 2c | 952.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 39c | 548.87$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.42 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 62c | 401.94$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.99 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe689…159fbacked Yes | 8c | 343.3$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.83 | 203 | 42.9%87 W · 116 L | +20.8wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 6c | 250$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236 | 99 | 19.2%19 W · 80 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 49c | 217.1$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.58 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f90…4e02backed Yes | 14c | 213.23$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.83 | 146 | 13.7%20 W · 126 L | -19.1wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 10c | 199.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.95 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf31…3255backed Yes | 20c | 188.17$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.39 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 37c | 166.83$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.91 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 14c | 156.94$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.08 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 20c | 152.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.2 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 78c | 146.8$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.78 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf074…2fd0backed Yes | 13c | 146.12$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.66 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 43c | 143.44$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.17 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4d…ee6abacked Yes | 69c | 112.85$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.35 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…0d14backed Yes | 16c | 112.35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.37 | 148 | 29.7%44 W · 104 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d6…8f66backed No | 46c | 110.66$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.9 | 180 | 52.8%95 W · 85 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa8…fd4ebacked Yes | 68c | 101.79$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.68 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcdc…57b3backed No | 80c | 99.99$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 105 | 77.1%81 W · 24 L | +11.1wins | +0.11per pick | 67cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed No | 31c | 99.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 34c | 89.63$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.57 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd39…43a8backed Yes | 18c | 85.38$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.73 | 123 | 17.9%22 W · 101 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -35%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed No | 19c | 84.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 33c | 81.19$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.39 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 14c | 71.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 251 | 30.7%77 W · 174 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe64d…5e09backed No | 27c | 69.09$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.54 | 133 | 15%20 W · 113 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc41…108fbacked Yes | 69c | 65.05$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.17 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14ea…998bbacked No | 18c | 63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 159 | 37.7%60 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 17c | 61.18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.05 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71cf…52d1backed No | 77c | 60.61$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.38 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 75cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd50c…3360backed Yes | 40c | 56.4$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.84 | 281 | 42%118 W · 163 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c7d…63debacked No | 71c | 55.08$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.83 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 22c | 55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 65c | 51.53$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.23 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked No | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 65c | 49.24$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.33 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes | 69c | 47.21$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bae…61b8backed Yes | 66c | 42.28$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbe…4d88backed Yes | 54c | 41.96$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +5.8wins | +0.18per pick | 34cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7a63…d348backed Yes | 68c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 50c | 35.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 48c | 34.79$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 57c | 30.15$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.98 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…2ea5backed No | 36c | 27.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 59c | 25.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.39 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f72…95c9backed Yes | 53c | 23.01$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.82 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b65…e6bfbacked Yes | 64c | 22.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed Yes | 69c | 20.35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 62c | 17.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.83 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xd31a…5f51backed Yes | 80c | 14.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.94 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 37cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x62fa…0c8abacked No | 79c | 13.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on April 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on April 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.