Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on April 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa091fa2ffc4e99072ad0b5be91d066977ce4ccf65b3b3d015f2c0853f5402b35
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,853
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,195
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,853 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 16c | 353.52$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.15 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3024…8ecebacked Yes | 7c | 264.87$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 172 | 37.2%64 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 13c | 234.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.14 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 31c | 224.8$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.33 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 15c | 216.65$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.72 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 21c | 193.51$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.64 | 285 | 17.9%51 W · 234 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75d3…3f0ebacked No | 64c | 169.65$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.43 | 209 | 58.4%122 W · 87 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 34c | 169.07$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.14 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd38…ddadbacked No | 79c | 130.71$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.05 | 254 | 49.2%125 W · 129 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 37c | 118.08$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.41 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59c8…0247backed No | 69c | 113.38$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.59 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 26c | 109.69$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.01 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 35c | 106.02$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.32 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7385…0c36backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -3.2wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 37c | 99.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 27c | 98.37$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.28 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 15c | 93.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 35c | 90.9$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.93 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b9…b47fbacked Yes | 37c | 89.38$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.07 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…effbbacked No | 64c | 64.9$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.21 | 116 | 59.5%69 W · 47 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d8…56bbbacked Yes | 32c | 64.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 147 | 52.4%77 W · 70 L | +11.7wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked Yes | 35c | 63.71$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.29 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 38c | 61.12$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.07 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 63c | 61.09$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.48 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd50c…3360backed Yes | 33c | 55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 281 | 42%118 W · 163 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7309…95bdbacked Yes | 38c | 53.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 111 | 24.3%27 W · 84 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 28c | 53.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…0d14backed Yes | 35c | 51.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 148 | 29.7%44 W · 104 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x601d…0afdbacked Yes | 37c | 50.34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -3.3wins | -0.19per pick | 25cpaid | -81.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6f72…95c9backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 34c | 47.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04f0…d55cbacked Yes | 39c | 45.38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…9f68backed Yes | 41c | 45.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.44 | 346 | 33.8%117 W · 229 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed Yes | 32c | 44.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 286 | 48.3%138 W · 148 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…137ebacked No | 64c | 34.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 136 | 63.2%86 W · 50 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed Yes | 31c | 33.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13e1…0805backed No | 63c | 30.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 66c | 29.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f16…063dbacked Yes | 34c | 29.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 67c | 29.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccd…383bbacked No | 67c | 29.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.48 | 208 | 66.8%139 W · 69 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 65c | 24.47$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa2…15eabacked No | 61c | 23.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 141 | 35.5%50 W · 91 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 67c | 21.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.12 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef6a…18e8backed No | 61c | 20.47$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 73 | 60.3%44 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9588…45b9backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.21per pick | 68cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x407d…87b0backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 67c | 17.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed No | 67c | 17.32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on April 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on April 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on April 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.