Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0e424536cd4068ce07c92daebaf9d4b7ffc4731c10d774467ca73820e3ae0a4f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,517
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,650
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,517 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 42c | 1,258$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.6 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4266…ffacbacked No | 66c | 983.68$652 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.32 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb5…dfcabacked Yes | 40c | 418.99$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.1 | 239 | 51%122 W · 117 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 61c | 327$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.43 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 37c | 256.88$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.39 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…b9bebacked No | 65c | 231.84$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.84 | 224 | 46.4%104 W · 120 L | +31.1wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 67c | 208.75$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.29 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7076…b1e4backed No | 64c | 153.84$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.38 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 35c | 153.35$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.31 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5675…f6a6backed No | 64c | 152.48$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.53 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 55c | 132.14$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.46 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 19c | 128.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.87 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5c…a240backed No | 68c | 126.49$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.35 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 28c | 123.81$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.23 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 55c | 123.78$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.09 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 29c | 120.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.05 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed No | 63c | 113.13$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.42 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 69c | 112.52$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.39 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 21c | 104.19$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.12 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f5…8fd4backed No | 53c | 102.62$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.13 | 100 | 42%42 W · 58 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed No | 52c | 101.28$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.28 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dae…125cbacked No | 61c | 100.54$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.32 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 49c | 100.01$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.1 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 51c | 88.61$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.42 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed No | 52c | 82.62$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.3 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 77c | 80$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.16 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked No | 64c | 78.12$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.37 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e9…0208backed Yes | 31c | 71.87$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.28 | 89 | 47.2%42 W · 47 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 27c | 67.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.11 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 73c | 67$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.96 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca86…3342backed No | 69c | 64.98$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 27c | 59.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae5f…bc30backed No | 67c | 59.32$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 93 | 39.8%37 W · 56 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x015b…5bfbbacked Yes | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 128 | 49.2%63 W · 65 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d3b…3a20backed Yes | 37c | 55.24$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 169 | 37.3%63 W · 106 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 42c | 55$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.9 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 55c | 54.14$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.14 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa087…91f7backed Yes | 39c | 54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.83 | 176 | 35.2%62 W · 114 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 31c | 51$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.25 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89cc…9e01backed No | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 97 | 52.6%51 W · 46 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 72c | 49.78$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.82 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 32c | 45.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x38c7…1c86backed No | 66c | 45.16$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.17 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed No | 66c | 45.16$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.17 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d6…eb5cbacked No | 66c | 45.16$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.41 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 77c | 45.02$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaac4…efa0backed No | 56c | 43.51$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.15 | 90 | 38.9%35 W · 55 L | -7.0wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed No | 64c | 42.96$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.47 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe6b7…223abacked Yes | 35c | 42.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.22per pick | 30cpaid | -86.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 67c | 41.73$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.67 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed No | 74c | 40.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 32c | 38.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf237…f6a5backed No | 52c | 37.19$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 30 | 76.7%23 W · 7 L | +4.3wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +24%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x348f…8378backed Yes | 34c | 37.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 68c | 36.49$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.68 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f89…5619backed Yes | 36c | 36.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…02d9backed No | 46c | 35.93$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 177 | 47.5%84 W · 93 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 72c | 35.14$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.73 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1441…0b51backed Yes | 46c | 32.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 57c | 32.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.94 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7c…d7b8backed Yes | 37c | 30.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x047b…83b1backed No | 67c | 29.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes | 35c | 29.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 69c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.43 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 68c | 25.4$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 67c | 25.38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.38 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 53c | 24.16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdab3…79b1backed No | 64c | 23.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.43 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed No | 64c | 23.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef65…d64fbacked No | 65c | 22.07$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 191 | 71.7%137 W · 54 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 57c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 71c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 73c | 16.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.38 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.