Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9c597a9862bf9635a86a2379319d1af2bd66c1007959e931b62438b8162c33f7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,495
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,802
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,495 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 5c | 1,699$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae0…7483backed Yes | 40c | 1,380$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$830.31 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 25c | 1,320$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.98 | 1,440 | 27.8%400 W · 1,040 L | +75.4wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x116d…fbf1backed No | 54c | 709.49$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.32 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +20.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 35c | 674.92$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438 | 2,335 | 20.6%480 W · 1,855 L | -62.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xead3…b125backed No | 59c | 524.46$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.73 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 2c | 510.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb5…dfcabacked Yes | 67c | 498.92$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.31 | 250 | 50.8%127 W · 123 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 3c | 405.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 6,857 | 53.1%3,642 W · 3,215 L | +417.4wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa7d…1968backed No | 6c | 354.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 6cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 14c | 353.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.64 | 2,304 | 27%622 W · 1,682 L | -41.0wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 61c | 350$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.5 | 1,324 | 51.1%676 W · 648 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 61c | 350$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.5 | 1,266 | 52.8%668 W · 598 L | -14.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 35c | 267.44$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.56 | 12,477 | 46.8%5,840 W · 6,637 L | -43.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 66c | 237.7$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.32 | 3,411 | 31.1%1,062 W · 2,349 L | -37.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 61c | 208.1$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.38 | 1,253 | 58.2%729 W · 524 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 61c | 200$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 880 | 49.5%436 W · 444 L | -26.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 63c | 184.01$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.4 | 10,848 | 37.5%4,070 W · 6,778 L | +432.8wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 29c | 176.64$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.32 | 4,302 | 53.5%2,303 W · 1,999 L | +157.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 22c | 171.22$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.56 | 7,231 | 9.3%675 W · 6,556 L | -1,115.6wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 10c | 170.16$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 2,260 | 58.3%1,318 W · 942 L | +85.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaac4…efa0backed No | 52c | 161.59$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.59 | 90 | 38.9%35 W · 55 L | -7.0wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed Yes | 46c | 150$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 71c | 144.56$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.48 | 6,854 | 39.4%2,698 W · 4,156 L | +266.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 56c | 124.3$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.61 | 5,201 | 49.9%2,595 W · 2,606 L | -161.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 29c | 104.76$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.76 | 299 | 36.5%109 W · 190 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 32c | 104.1$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.07 | 4,905 | 53.4%2,621 W · 2,284 L | +33.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 35c | 101.01$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.18 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3644…5313backed Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.19per pick | 27cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 58c | 86.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.38 | 8,309 | 49.2%4,089 W · 4,220 L | +271.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bed…bf63backed No | 71c | 82.18$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.35 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bb5…0f28backed No | 49c | 81.25$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…f053backed No | 48c | 78$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.64 | 180 | 46.1%83 W · 97 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc196…4af6backed Yes | 36c | 77.54$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.35 | 270 | 56.7%153 W · 117 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 25c | 77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 5,795 | 60%3,479 W · 2,316 L | -110.0wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 50c | 75$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.73 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 47c | 74.59$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.06 | 797 | 47.1%375 W · 422 L | -29.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 52c | 70.25$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.85 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 59c | 67.86$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.79 | 2,208 | 59.2%1,307 W · 901 L | +111.5wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 58c | 66.23$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.41 | 503 | 51.9%261 W · 242 L | -26.2wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 33c | 59.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.36 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 61c | 57.38$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d3b…3a20backed Yes | 33c | 54.95$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.82 | 173 | 38.2%66 W · 107 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 57c | 52.51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe39f…c040backed Yes | 30c | 52$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 148 | 32.4%48 W · 100 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x272e…6e99backed No | 60c | 51$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 167 | 24.6%41 W · 126 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb32e…d9cebacked Yes | 33c | 51$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.17 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 36cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.3 | 418 | 29.9%125 W · 293 L | +9.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 608 | 22.9%139 W · 469 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b1…3138backed No | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 54c | 47.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 5,161 | 68.3%3,525 W · 1,636 L | +71.4wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes | 41c | 45.63$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.88 | 199 | 27.1%54 W · 145 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6eee…18a2backed Yes | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 62cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe412…4356backed Yes | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 75 | 32%24 W · 51 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 32c | 39.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.18 | 546 | 27.1%148 W · 398 L | -64.8wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 63c | 38.55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.29 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 62c | 38.53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 3,620 | 53.2%1,925 W · 1,695 L | +81.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed Yes | 37c | 35.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.13 | 916 | 55.9%512 W · 404 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa760…2c51backed No | 63c | 34.63$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 212 | 64.6%137 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed No | 66c | 33.53$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 423 | 47.8%202 W · 221 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb86b…aabfbacked Yes | 42c | 33.51$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 158 | 68.4%108 W · 50 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 59c | 33.17$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 2,154 | 62.2%1,339 W · 815 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 67c | 32.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 61c | 32.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.81 | 2,211 | 55.9%1,236 W · 975 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37f…28bebacked Yes | 43c | 31.35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.73 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +16%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x329c…3667backed Yes | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 123 | 34.1%42 W · 81 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x165f…d7c0backed Yes | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x047b…83b1backed No | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 67c | 29.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50c8…f649backed No | 53c | 27.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 199 | 47.7%95 W · 104 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 40c | 26.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 61c | 26.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 586 | 58%340 W · 246 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 49c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 4,616 | 58.3%2,689 W · 1,927 L | -114.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 57c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…02d9backed No | 49c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 177 | 47.5%84 W · 93 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x245d…4271backed Yes | 45c | 22.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…ff15backed No | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 269 | 58.4%157 W · 112 L | -16.9wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 63c | 22.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.29 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…af38backed Yes | 50c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f9…9ab0backed No | 65c | 21.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 138 | 38.4%53 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 989 | 52.3%517 W · 472 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd46…e514backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -5.7wins | -0.23per pick | 55cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7a1b…1c78backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 174 | 60.3%105 W · 69 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfce0…2430backed Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 61c | 19.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 1,554 | 56.7%881 W · 673 L | -83.6wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 55c | 18.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82cc…d569backed No | 60c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 111 | 73%81 W · 30 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.