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Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 25?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$24,495
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$23,802

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,495 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x652d…46b3backed No5c1,699$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8561820.7%128 W · 490 L+36.9wins+0.06per pick15cpaid-7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6ae0…7483backed Yes40c1,380$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$830.3110539%41 W · 64 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6868…5198backed No25c1,320$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.981,44027.8%400 W · 1,040 L+75.4wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+19.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x116d…fbf1backed No54c709.49$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$386.3217859%105 W · 73 L+20.1wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+26.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Yes35c674.92$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4382,33520.6%480 W · 1,855 L-62.2wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xead3…b125backed No59c524.46$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.737252.8%38 W · 34 L-4.2wins-0.06per pick59cpaid-8.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3e28…4983backed No2c510.59$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1033654.2%182 W · 154 L-9.6wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4bb5…dfcabacked Yes67c498.92$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.3125050.8%127 W · 123 L-9.5wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No3c405.45$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.836,85753.1%3,642 W · 3,215 L+417.4wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfa7d…1968backed No6c354.64$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.25616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick6cpaid-15.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No14c353.16$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.642,30427%622 W · 1,682 L-41.0wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed No61c350$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.51,32451.1%676 W · 648 L-33.9wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed No61c350$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.51,26652.8%668 W · 598 L-14.5wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No35c267.44$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.5612,47746.8%5,840 W · 6,637 L-43.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes66c237.7$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.323,41131.1%1,062 W · 2,349 L-37.3wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc662…0927backed No61c208.1$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.381,25358.2%729 W · 524 L-3.1wins0.00per pick58cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed No61c200$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12288049.5%436 W · 444 L-26.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No63c184.01$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.410,84837.5%4,070 W · 6,778 L+432.8wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No29c176.64$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.324,30253.5%2,303 W · 1,999 L+157.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No22c171.22$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.567,2319.3%675 W · 6,556 L-1,115.6wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.8%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No10c170.16$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.152,26058.3%1,318 W · 942 L+85.2wins+0.04per pick55cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaac4…efa0backed No52c161.59$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.599038.9%35 W · 55 L-7.0wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-25.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0947…9e92backed Yes46c150$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8158152%302 W · 279 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes71c144.56$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.486,85439.4%2,698 W · 4,156 L+266.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-19.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No56c124.3$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.615,20149.9%2,595 W · 2,606 L-161.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes29c104.76$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.7629936.5%109 W · 190 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes32c104.1$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.074,90553.4%2,621 W · 2,284 L+33.7wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe2be…ff33backed No35c101.01$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.181,20348.9%588 W · 615 L-24.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3644…5313backed Yes51c100$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$491145.5%5 W · 6 L+2.0wins+0.19per pick27cpaid+61.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No58c86.86$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.388,30949.2%4,089 W · 4,220 L+271.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7bed…bf63backed No71c82.18$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.356048.3%29 W · 31 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid+7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9bb5…0f28backed No49c81.25$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401747.1%8 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-30.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc3e4…f053backed No48c78$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.6418046.1%83 W · 97 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc196…4af6backed Yes36c77.54$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.3527056.7%153 W · 117 L-1.3wins0.00per pick57cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No25c77$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.335,79560%3,479 W · 2,316 L-110.0wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes50c75$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.7386952.7%458 W · 411 L-3.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x13de…fd91backed No47c74.59$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.0679747.1%375 W · 422 L-29.4wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf370…4f88backed No52c70.25$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.8538860.1%233 W · 155 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes59c67.86$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.792,20859.2%1,307 W · 901 L+111.5wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x45e7…d77cbacked No58c66.23$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.4150351.9%261 W · 242 L-26.2wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-10.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd3b8…6983backed Yes33c59.98$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.3687437.3%326 W · 548 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ec8…99d2backed No61c57.38$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3583360.7%506 W · 327 L+1.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d3b…3a20backed Yes33c54.95$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.8217338.2%66 W · 107 L-0.6wins0.00per pick39cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x49c4…db5bbacked No57c52.51$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301,27536.5%465 W · 810 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe39f…c040backed Yes30c52$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.414832.4%48 W · 100 L+8.4wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+7.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x272e…6e99backed No60c51$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.616724.6%41 W · 126 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-22.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb32e…d9cebacked Yes33c51$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.17812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.24per pick36cpaid-62.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9e42…4938backed Yes39c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.341829.9%125 W · 293 L+9.1wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes37c50$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.570148.4%339 W · 362 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdadb…1870backed Yes46c50$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2760822.9%139 W · 469 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick21cpaid+19.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x45b1…3138backed No61c49.18$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No54c47.99$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.925,16168.3%3,525 W · 1,636 L+71.4wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes41c45.63$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.8819927.1%54 W · 145 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-4.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6eee…18a2backed Yes65c40$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.21per pick62cpaid+23.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe412…4356backed Yes73c40$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.87532%24 W · 51 L-3.7wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-23.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes32c39.97$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.1854627.1%148 W · 398 L-64.8wins-0.12per pick39cpaid-32.9%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0xabb7…df91backed No63c38.55$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.2994552.5%496 W · 449 L+27.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No62c38.53$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243,62053.2%1,925 W · 1,695 L+81.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x61f9…8055backed Yes37c35.08$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.1391655.9%512 W · 404 L+1.8wins0.00per pick56cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa760…2c51backed No63c34.63$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.8721264.6%137 W · 75 L+14.6wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+14.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdb46…56e7backed No66c33.53$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.142347.8%202 W · 221 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb86b…aabfbacked Yes42c33.51$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.4415868.4%108 W · 50 L+12.7wins+0.08per pick60cpaid+12.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x28ea…7367backed No59c33.17$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.482,15462.2%1,339 W · 815 L+0.7wins0.00per pick62cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No67c32.67$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.783,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed Yes61c32.64$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.812,21155.9%1,236 W · 975 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd37f…28bebacked Yes43c31.35$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.734440.9%18 W · 26 L+3.1wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+16%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x329c…3667backed Yes49c30.61$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.6112334.1%42 W · 81 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x165f…d7c0backed Yes70c30$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92733.3%9 W · 18 L-3.1wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-34.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x047b…83b1backed No67c30$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9513452.2%70 W · 64 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No67c29.16$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.612,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x50c8…f649backed No53c27.62$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7619947.7%95 W · 104 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2ed…9d98backed No40c26.92$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7282268.7%565 W · 257 L+72.3wins+0.09per pick60cpaid+17.4%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x721a…9295backed No61c26.81$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.4758658%340 W · 246 L-2.1wins0.00per pick58cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No49c26$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.744,61658.3%2,689 W · 1,927 L-114.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd84…0fe5backed No57c25$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2551568%350 W · 165 L-8.3wins-0.02per pick70cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2429…02d9backed No49c25$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2517747.5%84 W · 93 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x245d…4271backed Yes45c22.7$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.494740.4%19 W · 28 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x65f7…ff15backed No67c22.39$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1526958.4%157 W · 112 L-16.9wins-0.06per pick65cpaid+0.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes63c22.22$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.2952446.2%242 W · 282 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1346…af38backed Yes50c22$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.022356.5%13 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick65cpaid-11.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe4f9…9ab0backed No65c21.93$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2313838.4%53 W · 85 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-21.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x077c…8b1fbacked No68c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.653855%296 W · 242 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4435…786fbacked No68c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.698952.3%517 W · 472 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd46…e514backed No67c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.42532%8 W · 17 L-5.7wins-0.23per pick55cpaid-43.2%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x7a1b…1c78backed No62c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.417460.3%105 W · 69 L+6.1wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfce0…2430backed Yes57c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No61c19.59$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.951,55456.7%881 W · 673 L-83.6wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No55c18.7$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.232,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x82cc…d569backed No60c17$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2611173%81 W · 30 L+6.3wins+0.06per pick67cpaid+7.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.