MLB · resolved market
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0eb2a38af386395e3c4fb088a833a54274c38ae790d3482d724c49664adfcf6e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Boston Red Soxof Boston Red Sox, Kansas City Royals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,822
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,897
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,822 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Kansas City Royals | 78c | 4,867$3,785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,784.52 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Boston Red Sox | 23c | 4,580$1,067 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,512.86 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Boston Red Sox | 26c | 815.94$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$603.58 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Kansas City Royals | 70c | 814.84$574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$574.39 | 2,375 | 47.3%1,123 W · 1,252 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Boston Red Sox | 29c | 573$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.83 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Kansas City Royals | 74c | 305.12$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.95 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Boston Red Sox | 30c | 266.67$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.67 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Kansas City Royals | 55c | 247.85$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.32 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Kansas City Royals | 63c | 198$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.74 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Boston Red Sox | 26c | 180.5$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.57 | 999 | 24.6%246 W · 753 L | -70.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Kansas City Royals | 71c | 173$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.83 | 726 | 48.1%349 W · 377 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Boston Red Sox | 29c | 73.95$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.14 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Boston Red Sox | 24c | 70$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.2 | 310 | 38.4%119 W · 191 L | +9.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Boston Red Sox | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 639 | 43.3%277 W · 362 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Kansas City Royals | 78c | 55.94$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.75 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Boston Red Sox | 22c | 54.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.3 | 582 | 54.3%316 W · 266 L | +16.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Boston Red Sox | 30c | 49.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.52 | 2,310 | 52.6%1,215 W · 1,095 L | +27.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61d3…189abacked Boston Red Sox | 63c | 45.1$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.75 | 238 | 54.2%129 W · 109 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e31…0e6ebacked Kansas City Royals | 71c | 42.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 136 | 72.1%98 W · 38 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Kansas City Royals | 44c | 29.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked Boston Red Sox | 38c | 27.58$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 325 | 50.5%164 W · 161 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Kansas City Royals | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…3107backed Kansas City Royals | 71c | 19.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 125 | 72%90 W · 35 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Kansas City Royals | 69c | 17.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 1,828 | 54.1%989 W · 839 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)this page
- Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City RoyalsBoston Red Sox won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 11.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 5.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 6.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-3.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City RoyalsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.