MLB · resolved market
Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6bea81c570449e2619cf61ebc063472f85755fa812ff46c66481fc285d38bfcb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,662
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,816
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,662 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 43c | 1,623$703 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$702.68 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 57c | 1,161$662 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.24 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac65…cfe6backed Under | 60c | 736.67$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.67 | 137 | 59.1%81 W · 56 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 40c | 628.33$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.33 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Over | 44c | 500$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 827 | 41.1%340 W · 487 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 56c | 479$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.76 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 60c | 327.3$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.01 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 56c | 266.97$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.47 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 56c | 266.04$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.06 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 56c | 244.22$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.2 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd38…99d4backed Under | 58c | 216.9$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.1 | 267 | 59.2%158 W · 109 L | +17.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Over | 41c | 200$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 494 | 50%247 W · 247 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8fd…3e24backed Under | 57c | 192$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.56 | 110 | 47.3%52 W · 58 L | -8.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 55c | 100.31$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.52 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d71…ca3ebacked Under | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +82.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 34c | 99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.84 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9de1…f272backed Under | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 56c | 83$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.48 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 42c | 76.94$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.31 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20c7…bc23backed Over | 41c | 70$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 105 | 36.2%38 W · 67 L | -8.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 43c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 42c | 50.02$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 42c | 44.79$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcce1…7572backed Under | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 41c | 42.37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.37 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6419…0f53backed Over | 44c | 31.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 87 | 55.2%48 W · 39 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55d6…1f24backed Under | 58c | 28.34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 312 | 58%181 W · 131 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 59c | 21.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 70c | 16.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5this page
- Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City RoyalsBoston Red Sox won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 11.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 5.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 6.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-3.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City RoyalsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.