NHL · resolved market
Kings vs. Avalanche: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0ef958264a353a8245ce87d93f01dadbc21538094e0c111824b8927f5bde0fa7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,732
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,360
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,732 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 38c | 2,738$1,047 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,046.95 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Under | 62c | 1,955$1,212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$742.71 | 1,434 | 50.8%728 W · 706 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 39c | 1,412$551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550.74 | 418 | 42.8%179 W · 239 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 60c | 912.74$549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.32 | 665 | 52%346 W · 319 L | +8.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ebb…061abacked Under | 62c | 788.82$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.24 | 247 | 49.8%123 W · 124 L | -10.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 39c | 517.2$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.55 | 381 | 47.2%180 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 39c | 496.52$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.64 | 502 | 51.2%257 W · 245 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6832…831fbacked Over | 18c | 445.34$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.16 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Over | 19c | 299.27$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.15 | 127 | 33.1%42 W · 85 L | -10.1wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x29f8…cfb1backed Under | 61c | 198.91$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.57 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b39…65adbacked Under | 61c | 161.75$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.08 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 39c | 152.49$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.57 | 538 | 49.4%266 W · 272 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a11…db4bbacked Under | 61c | 144.86$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.98 | 141 | 53.9%76 W · 65 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Over | 39c | 126.64$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.76 | 432 | 50.9%220 W · 212 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab9f…75f1backed Over | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 38c | 99.97$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.99 | 335 | 54%181 W · 154 L | +13.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 39c | 95.81$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.37 | 451 | 51.2%231 W · 220 L | +16.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98cb…aa35backed Over | 38c | 84.93$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.98 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d3…f859backed Under | 61c | 79.56$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.72 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2383…e639backed Under | 61c | 78.8$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.73 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x720b…f155backed Under | 62c | 75.84$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 66cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Over | 38c | 75$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 211 | 55.5%117 W · 94 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 29c | 70$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 498 | 51%254 W · 244 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 64c | 53.81$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.42 | 155 | 60%93 W · 62 L | +13.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfba9…d704backed Under | 61c | 51.09$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.92 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9438…3d6abacked Over | 39c | 50.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 177 | 61.6%109 W · 68 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 39c | 38.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc36a…697cbacked Over | 40c | 36.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5559…2bd2backed Over | 40c | 36.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 97 | 60.8%59 W · 38 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a4f…5ab1backed Under | 62c | 31.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.98 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5471…a236backed Under | 78c | 29.61$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.52 | 115 | 51.3%59 W · 56 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd281…d824backed Under | 61c | 26.42$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 100 | 33%33 W · 67 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd7…6d6cbacked Under | 79c | 26.33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.53 | 152 | 65.1%99 W · 53 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40f…9c63backed Under | 62c | 26.21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.96 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +191.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce3…1a0dbacked Under | 61c | 21.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.39 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa2e…c5d2backed Under | 62c | 20.52$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 75 | 80%60 W · 15 L | +10.0wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kings vs. Avalanche: O/U 6.5this page
- Kings vs. AvalancheAvalanche won
- Kings vs. Avalanche: O/U 4.5Under won
- Kings vs. Avalanche: O/U 5.5Under won
- Kings vs. Avalanche: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Avalanche (-1.5)Kings won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.