NHL · resolved market
Kings vs. Avalanche: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa3b0d17179f227528cb1a8c1d9c6d5f133932182d6f16c1c4c13b60e55f74c15
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,761
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,394
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,761 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 27c | 3,151$856 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,295.72 | 665 | 52%346 W · 319 L | +8.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 69c | 1,592$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100.04 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e9c…1fcabacked Over | 47c | 1,487$699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.04 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4658…4131backed Over | 73c | 976.03$713 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$712.5 | 106 | 63.2%67 W · 39 L | +7.7wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 53c | 832.94$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.27 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9438…3d6abacked Over | 72c | 783.54$564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$564.15 | 177 | 61.6%109 W · 68 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 66c | 599.52$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.89 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Over | 72c | 506.06$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.06 | 165 | 46.7%77 W · 88 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 73c | 498$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.02 | 502 | 51.2%257 W · 245 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Over | 27c | 432.24$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.61 | 283 | 40.3%114 W · 169 L | -24.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x66ea…6791backed Under | 27c | 390.68$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.12 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 28c | 387.4$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.53 | 1,024 | 48.4%496 W · 528 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98cb…aa35backed Over | 60c | 351$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.56 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 33c | 269.43$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.72 | 155 | 60%93 W · 62 L | +13.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x348f…a206backed Under | 28c | 237.1$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.48 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 73c | 192$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.16 | 145 | 51%74 W · 71 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…c7a2backed Under | 27c | 176.4$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.58 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 37cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 27c | 166.42$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.68 | 190 | 33.7%64 W · 126 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Over | 73c | 150$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.75 | 432 | 50.9%220 W · 212 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d87…8dbbbacked Under | 51c | 123.23$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.73 | 109 | 47.7%52 W · 57 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc46…a54bbacked Under | 64c | 120.44$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.44 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Over | 54c | 119.1$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.35 | 213 | 55.4%118 W · 95 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f0…d7a4backed Under | 28c | 102.48$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.79 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8f…de8abacked Under | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcec1…9c0cbacked Over | 30c | 95.8$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.74 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…c4a6backed Over | 53c | 91.22$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.35 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -3.6wins | -0.36per pick | 46cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3b…b968backed Under | 46c | 89.02$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.1 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc46e…9ed8backed Under | 28c | 85.43$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.51 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce27…8a7dbacked Under | 28c | 85.43$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.51 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6832…831fbacked Under | 79c | 85$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.01 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Over | 30c | 70.3$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.82 | 127 | 33.1%42 W · 85 L | -10.1wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 37c | 69.94$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 498 | 51%254 W · 244 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 72c | 69.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.01 | 831 | 49.5%411 W · 420 L | -9.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf693…8064backed Under | 28c | 68.31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.18 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbf6a…959fbacked Under | 64c | 63.4$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.85 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…5925backed Over | 72c | 58.93$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.43 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd281…d824backed Under | 28c | 56.38$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.6 | 100 | 33%33 W · 67 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe32a…efabbacked Under | 54c | 53.48$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d4…523cbacked Under | 28c | 42.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.31 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510e…b8e0backed Over | 37c | 41.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe166…4f71backed Under | 79c | 38.75$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 44c | 37.26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 148 | 55.4%82 W · 66 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 31c | 36.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 410 | 50.7%208 W · 202 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Over | 47c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 345 | 47.8%165 W · 180 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…3d0ebacked Under | 78c | 27.7$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.03 | 85 | 62.4%53 W · 32 L | +6.9wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f86…ef4ebacked Under | 58c | 26.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.9 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +4.1wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 71c | 26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 920 | 49.7%457 W · 463 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Under | 54c | 21.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…2632backed Under | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 88 | 50%44 W · 44 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Over | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 80 | 60%48 W · 32 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd78e…6421backed Over | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked Over | 73c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 71 | 67.6%48 W · 23 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaedd…ad5bbacked Over | 73c | 14.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kings vs. Avalanche: O/U 4.5this page
- Kings vs. AvalancheAvalanche won
- Kings vs. Avalanche: O/U 5.5Under won
- Kings vs. Avalanche: O/U 6.5Under won
- Kings vs. Avalanche: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Avalanche (-1.5)Kings won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.