NBA · resolved market
Kings vs. Thunder: O/U 231.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0f3e1c9d0f2f27a0290b9b65a62800c0be57624e7f9b95b3277e6050f0fb3484
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,159
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,422
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,159 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 49c | 4,000$1,960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,039.93 | 662 | 50.8%336 W · 326 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x182d…73e9backed Over | 51c | 3,600$1,836 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,836 | 402 | 43.8%176 W · 226 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4517…f700backed Over | 52c | 963.1$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 171 | 47.4%81 W · 90 L | +13.7wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 48c | 500$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 726 | 47.7%346 W · 380 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 48c | 381.87$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.57 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddc4…0270backed Over | 55c | 363.64$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 277 | 45.8%127 W · 150 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf09f…8049backed Over | 54c | 300$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 666 | 45.9%306 W · 360 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe78e…55f0backed Under | 48c | 290.81$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.22 | 346 | 45.7%158 W · 188 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Under | 46c | 274$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.96 | 927 | 53.5%496 W · 431 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 50c | 268.6$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.25 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b4…e861backed Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x102f…9b6ebacked Under | 49c | 191$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.41 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 52c | 169$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.88 | 1,151 | 53.7%618 W · 533 L | -41.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27ed…57ebbacked Under | 49c | 92$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.92 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +9.6wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0338…4f11backed Over | 52c | 90$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f57…6d41backed Over | 51c | 77$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.27 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd1…0100backed Over | 51c | 69$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.19 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6203…5192backed Over | 51c | 52$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Over | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc39b…5754backed Over | 51c | 41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce49…4740backed Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 236 | 42.4%100 W · 136 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 46c | 26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 1,715 | 44.5%764 W · 951 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4f…73a6backed Over | 51c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5253…b898backed Over | 51c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -4.4wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7fe…068ebacked Over | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kings vs. Thunder: O/U 231.5this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-10.5)Kings won
- Kings vs. ThunderThunder won
- Kings vs. Thunder: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Kings vs. Thunder: O/U 230.5Under won
- Kings vs. Thunder: O/U 232.5Under won
- Kings vs. Thunder: O/U 233.5Under won
- Spread: Thunder (-17.5)Kings won
- Spread: Thunder (-18.5)Kings won
- Spread: Thunder (-19.5)Kings won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.