NBA · resolved market
Spread: Thunder (-18.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x12f65a2d599b29b5a65ce5b00eee326996c1fdb6eb94e41813ede988053fcdc3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kingsof Thunder, Kings
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $362,146
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $363,792
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $362,146 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9165…5b98backed Thunder | 51c | 264,232$135,066 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135,066.02 | 252 | 48.4%122 W · 130 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Kings | 49c | 113,196$55,036 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58,159.96 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Kings | 50c | 47,261$23,613 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,647.78 | 478 | 48.1%230 W · 248 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Kings | 51c | 36,524$18,477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,046.81 | 1,046 | 51.1%534 W · 512 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Kings | 49c | 28,442$13,954 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,487.21 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…bd28backed Kings | 49c | 27,893$13,664 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,228.86 | 593 | 47%279 W · 314 L | -7.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Kings | 49c | 16,399$8,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,399.47 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a8…53a3backed Thunder | 49c | 16,327$8,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,000 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Thunder | 49c | 15,000$7,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,350 | 382 | 48.7%186 W · 196 L | +13.9wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Kings | 51c | 13,015$6,637 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,377.15 | 1,045 | 49%512 W · 533 L | +21.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Kings | 48c | 10,050$4,824 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,226 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74d3…0332backed Kings | 49c | 10,000$4,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,100 | 346 | 45.4%157 W · 189 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Thunder | 49c | 9,697$4,752 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,751.53 | 927 | 53.5%496 W · 431 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Kings | 51c | 8,000$4,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,960 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Kings | 48c | 3,000$1,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,560 | 824 | 42.2%348 W · 476 L | -3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Thunder | 48c | 2,990$1,446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,446.21 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Thunder | 49c | 2,780$1,365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,365.26 | 857 | 42.6%365 W · 492 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Thunder | 49c | 2,222$1,089 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,088.78 | 288 | 50.3%145 W · 143 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Kings | 50c | 2,174$1,083 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,091.46 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffad…87fdbacked Kings | 51c | 1,961$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960.78 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Kings | 48c | 1,712$830 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$882.11 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6b2…6d9dbacked Thunder | 49c | 1,602$785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$785 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Kings | 49c | 1,555$762 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$793.05 | 475 | 42.3%201 W · 274 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Kings | 48c | 1,100$528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$572 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Thunder | 49c | 1,010$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.9 | 698 | 52%363 W · 335 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Thunder | 49c | 999.99$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.99 | 258 | 45%116 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc1…ffeebacked Kings | 52c | 967.31$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$467.31 | 369 | 43.4%160 W · 209 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1377…56aebacked Thunder | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed Kings | 64c | 500$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 96 | 49%47 W · 49 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Thunder | 36c | 411$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.02 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03f7…c0ccbacked Kings | 51c | 341.73$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.87 | 236 | 48.7%115 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4278…0e92backed Kings | 52c | 341$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.68 | 416 | 52.2%217 W · 199 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e13…732fbacked Thunder | 50c | 330$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbb…acb2backed Thunder | 49c | 300$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 890 | 50.4%449 W · 441 L | +4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Thunder | 52c | 300$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 180 | 47.8%86 W · 94 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Thunder | 46c | 253.02$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.84 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Thunder | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 261 | 50.2%131 W · 130 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e80…09b8backed Thunder | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 61cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d51…397abacked Kings | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +3.1wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked Thunder | 48c | 150$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 377 | 50.4%190 W · 187 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Thunder | 49c | 142.86$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 660 | 46.8%309 W · 351 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Thunder | 53c | 141.73$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.99 | 477 | 48.8%233 W · 244 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Kings | 48c | 138.6$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.07 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50bb…9aa6backed Kings | 52c | 120$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 119 | 51.3%61 W · 58 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…fde0backed Thunder | 51c | 103$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.53 | 517 | 53.8%278 W · 239 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a87…fb21backed Kings | 49c | 103$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.53 | 624 | 50%312 W · 312 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc5…9cf9backed Thunder | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 69 | 56.5%39 W · 30 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc319…a062backed Thunder | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cff…6471backed Thunder | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 144 | 45.8%66 W · 78 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x897d…90c9backed Kings | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 165 | 59.4%98 W · 67 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Thunder | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Kings | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 661 | 53.3%352 W · 309 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd420…df90backed Thunder | 51c | 98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 514 | 51.9%267 W · 247 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f1…f0e8backed Kings | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 81 | 55.6%45 W · 36 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fed…0d78backed Kings | 50c | 84$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Kings | 49c | 80.38$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e07…1f7ebacked Thunder | 49c | 78.33$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0a…0809backed Kings | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.43 | 75 | 37.3%28 W · 47 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9430…97cebacked Thunder | 50c | 69$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0da5…5adfbacked Thunder | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 125 | 50.4%63 W · 62 L | -7.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Thunder | 50c | 52.24$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.12 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x939d…3b3cbacked Thunder | 48c | 52.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.01 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x555e…6bb8backed Thunder | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7622…8f80backed Kings | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a3…0c69backed Thunder | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 158 | 38.6%61 W · 97 L | -11.1wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d3…ada0backed Thunder | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b4…9dc2backed Thunder | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 187 | 42.8%80 W · 107 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97f1…c325backed Thunder | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3303…03afbacked Thunder | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 60cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e47…a7abbacked Kings | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 498 | 52.4%261 W · 237 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb62…d14fbacked Kings | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3175…5916backed Kings | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -15%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe985…7a09backed Thunder | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x658a…3b89backed Thunder | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 83 | 68.7%57 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Kings | 45c | 25.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73b8…aa92backed Thunder | 55c | 25.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Thunder | 49c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 1,109 | 41.8%464 W · 645 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…9652backed Kings | 51c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 183 | 57.4%105 W · 78 L | +10.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Thunder (-18.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-10.5)Kings won
- Kings vs. ThunderThunder won
- Kings vs. Thunder: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Kings vs. Thunder: O/U 230.5Under won
- Kings vs. Thunder: O/U 231.5Under won
- Kings vs. Thunder: O/U 232.5Under won
- Kings vs. Thunder: O/U 233.5Under won
- Spread: Thunder (-17.5)Kings won
- Spread: Thunder (-19.5)Kings won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.